The so-called "inflation hawks" of the Federal Reserve have recently been vocal, and according to federal funds futures contracts, investors have lowered the probability of a rate cut in December to about 51%. Before the October Federal Reserve meeting, the market's expected probability of a rate cut was as high as 93%.

On the first day of the U.S. government's "return to work," various important economic data were absent, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks. Panic spread, with major institutional funds continuing to flow out. According to on-chain data monitoring, Bitcoin saw a total net outflow of nearly $900 million from ETFs yesterday, setting a record for the second-highest outflow in history, while Ethereum experienced an outflow of nearly $260 million, continuing a net outflow for three days… Bitcoin's price fell below $100,000 again today, continuing to drop to $96,000 in the afternoon, while Ethereum tested a low of $3,100. The panic selling triggered a widespread decline in the crypto market.

This round of continuous decline is related to the tightening of U.S. liquidity and the overall pressure on risk assets. Although the drop is not extreme, bulls lack confidence. If panic continues and institutional funds do not flow in to restore confidence, the decline may continue to expand later this month, leading to a deeper adjustment in cryptocurrencies.

This drop is a collapse triggered by market panic, and technically, the weekly, daily, and four-hour indicators are all showing bearish momentum, with bears dominating the rhythm. I have previously emphasized that the current market is in a tense state; any slight movement from the U.S. government's return to work or the Federal Reserve's rate cut can impact the market. Now, the market is in heightened panic, putting pressure on bulls. However, typically, in cases of overselling, there will be a rebound correction, and the hourly level shows a demand for a rebound. Bitcoin has already fallen below the key support area of $100,000, but there is significant buying interest in the $97,000-$100,000 range. In the short term, the market may be heavily influenced by strong bearish sentiment, but the accumulation area for buying will not be easily broken unless major institutional funds continue to sell aggressively, pushing prices below $95,000 or even lower to $92,000, which would completely damage the bullish structure. Otherwise, the price will hover in that resilient area before rebounding.

Although there was a rebound in the Asian session, the strength was not strong. As we enter the European session, there will be a correction, with the $100,000 level forming resistance, which is a key point that bulls need to overcome. During the European and evening U.S. sessions, we need to observe the market's correction situation, with short-term resistance at $100,000. If the market can recover this level over the weekend, there will be some positive feedback next week.

Short-term trading suggestions for Bitcoin:

1. Long positions near the $96,500-$96,000 area, targeting $98,000-$98,500

2. Short positions near the $99,500-$100,000 area, targeting $99,000-$98,500

Ethereum remains relatively resilient, with key support still in the $3,150-$3,000 area. Although it fell to around $3,100 in the afternoon, it quickly rebounded afterward, showing strong support below. The trend should follow Bitcoin; after a correction, if it rebounds, the strength will be somewhat stronger than Bitcoin. In the European and U.S. sessions, short-term resistance to watch is $3,300-$3,350. If it can recover this level, it will erase this drop and test the $3,500-$3,800 area again.

Short-term trading suggestions for Ethereum:

1. Long positions near the $3,150-$3,100 area, targeting $3,220-$3,270

2. Short positions near the $3,300-$3,350 area, targeting $3,250-$3,220

——Original by the author, welcome to follow and like

This article is exclusively published by (WeChat public account: Jien Crypto) and is for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the challenge lies in human psychology and self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, refine ourselves, and strive for long-term strength.

Market conditions fluctuate in real-time and are time-sensitive. Feel free to scan the QR code to follow the public account for daily market information and real-time communication.

Warm reminder: This article is solely owned by the public account (above) of Jien Crypto. Any other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author!! Please be cautious in distinguishing authenticity. Thank you for reading.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。