Yesterday, we defined the market as a rebound, so we suggested that everyone focus on short positions. After reaching around 107500 today, it began to decline, which aligns with our expectations. At the same time, we mentioned yesterday that the resistance was at 107500, and today it also hit around 107500, making our identified resistance level very accurate. Our short positions have also been profitable.
From the MACD perspective, the energy bars are retracting, and the fast and slow lines are moving in different directions. If this continues, a golden cross will form in a couple of days. From a technical standpoint, this is favorable for the bulls; however, a golden cross can also easily lead to a trend reversal, so we cannot assume that a golden cross will definitely result in a price increase. It is also possible that after reaching the golden cross, there may be no follow-up, leading to a decline.
Looking at the CCI, it was close to touching -100 yesterday. We also mentioned that if the market makers want the market to decline, it is best not to touch -100. Today, as the market declined, the CCI turned downward without touching -100, indicating that our judgment was still correct.
From the OBV perspective, the rise a few days ago caused the OBV to recover. However, we emphasized yesterday that although there was a recovery, the volume was not significant, so the bulls are still relatively weak. Today, the OBV continued to decline, which also aligns with our judgment.
Looking at the KDJ, the direction is still upward, but the momentum has slowed. If the market continues to decline, we will see the KDJ turn downward in a couple of days. Here, we mainly need to see if the KDJ can cross above 50.
From the MFI and RSI perspectives, the MFI is positioned slightly below neutral, and the RSI is in the neutral range. We just need to continue declining for a day or two, and the directions of the MFI and RSI will align downward.
Looking at the moving averages, yesterday the market closed above the BBI, but today it fell below the BBI. We believe the market has not been able to stabilize above the BBI, so we continue to maintain a bearish outlook. Additionally, the moving averages are still pressing down, so there is no reason to be bullish here.
From the Bollinger Bands perspective, we mentioned yesterday that we were concerned that continued upward movement would cause the Bollinger Bands to widen, which would be very unfavorable for the bears. To break this possibility, we needed a bearish candle today. Now, the market has declined by about two points, as we judged yesterday, which slightly reduces the likelihood of the market widening, giving the bears a better chance of victory.
In summary: Our judgment of the market yesterday was completely correct, and today’s movements were all within our expectations from yesterday. Since our expectations have been realized, we will continue to act according to our predicted direction. Today, the resistance is seen at 105000-106500, and support is at 103000-101500.
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