Tracking real-time hotspots in the cryptocurrency market and seizing the best trading opportunities. Today is Friday, November 7, 2025. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning, crypto friends! ☀️ Die-hard fans check in! 👍 Like to make big money! 🍗🍗🌹🌹

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Macroeconomic Outlook: U.S. Stocks Plunge + Policy Fog, Cryptocurrency Market Needs Caution

First, let's look at the macro environment affecting the cryptocurrency market. Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, casting a shadow over the risk asset market. Specific data shows that the Nasdaq fell by 1.9%, the S&P 500 index dropped by 1.12%, and the Dow Jones fell by 0.84%, with large tech stocks weakening across the board, and market risk aversion clearly rising. The core disruptive factor behind all this is the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

This shutdown not only disrupts expectations for the U.S. economic outlook but, more critically, leads to the "absence" of key employment data, temporarily obscuring structural issues in the labor market. The market is generally worried that once the government shutdown ends and data floodgates reopen, if weak employment signals emerge, it will directly end the recent rebound of the U.S. dollar, triggering a global asset pricing restructuring. Regarding Federal Reserve policy, it is currently in an awkward "data drought"—having cut rates twice this year, there is insufficient data to support another rate cut in December.

According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch": the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 70.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 29.4%; by January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 54.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut rises to 28.2%, with the probability of maintaining the current rate at only 17.7%. This strong expectation for rate cuts could inject liquidity into the cryptocurrency market but may also cause volatility due to the realization of these expectations. Everyone must pay close attention! Follow Yibo to stay updated on real-time dynamics.

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Bitcoin: $100,000 Threshold Becomes a Lifeline, Weak Rebound Awaits Breakthrough

Returning to the Bitcoin trend we care about most, after reaching a temporary rebound high of $104,498 the day before yesterday, bullish momentum has clearly "lost its chain," and yesterday it entered a period of overall downward consolidation. From the details of the day, the market's willingness to rebound continues to weaken, with the evening session peaking at only $103,588 before being pressured back down, with bears gradually taking control.

As of early this morning, Bitcoin dipped to a low of $100,237. Although a slight rebound was triggered at this level, peaking around $102,300, the rebound strength was indeed weak, and it subsequently fell back to around $100,480, ultimately maintaining a slight rebound consolidation. Technically, the support at the lower bound of the hourly chart is on the verge of collapse, with the $100,000 threshold becoming the core battleground for short-term bulls and bears.

From a market logic perspective, without significant positive news providing liquidity, it is difficult for bulls to organize an effective counterattack, and the weak rebound pattern is likely to continue. Therefore, in future operations, the key is whether the $100,000 threshold can hold as a solid support: if it holds, the market may have the potential to launch a corrective rebound and expand upward space; if it is effectively broken, the market will likely further test lower points, and the risk of a phase adjustment must be heeded!

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Ethereum: $3,220 Support Determines Success or Failure, Watch for Correlated Movements

Ethereum's trend mirrors that of Bitcoin, having also faced pressure and correction after reaching a high of $3,480 the day before yesterday. Yesterday, the market overall trended downward, with lows continuously declining, and bears gradually dominating the rhythm. In the evening session, Ethereum tested the $3,400 support level twice but failed to hold, subsequently initiating a significant drop, reaching a low of around $3,244 before barely stabilizing.

However, the rebound performance in the early morning was also below expectations, peaking at only $3,350 before dropping again, currently oscillating around $3,300. For Ethereum's future, the effectiveness of the $3,220 support level is crucial—this level is not only an important support area for the recent correction but also near the key starting point of the previous rebound; holding it is essential for discussing the continuation of the rebound.

Specifically, if the $3,220 support level can be held, the market is expected to stabilize at this level and reorganize for a rebound, gradually repairing the previous correction space; if the support fails, Ethereum is likely to adjust alongside Bitcoin, and the risk of further declines should be closely monitored.

Yibo's Summary: Cautious Observation, Don't Act Blindly, Key Signals for Further Action

In summary, the current cryptocurrency market is at a critical stage of rebound pressure, with Bitcoin's $100,000 threshold and Ethereum's $3,220 being two core supports. If these levels cannot hold, further adjustments may be on the horizon. Additionally, the significant drop in U.S. stocks and the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policy are important macro variables. Future developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, employment data releases, and Federal Reserve movements may trigger significant market volatility.

In terms of operations, it is recommended that everyone remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing highs or cutting losses. On one hand, closely monitor the stabilization signals of the two major cryptocurrencies' key support levels, and on the other hand, pay close attention to macro dynamics. Wait for the cryptocurrency market's trend to clarify and for the macro environment to provide direction before making more stable arrangements. Finally, a reminder: the market's interconnected effects are becoming stronger, and fluctuations in a single market may trigger chain reactions. Follow Yibo to not miss real-time dynamics, making investment decisions more reliable!

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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to bottom out, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeatedly failing. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. Market conditions change rapidly, and due to review timeliness, subsequent trends will be based on real-time arrangements. I look forward to moving steadily forward with you in the market.

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