I don't know how many friends still remember what I previously said about the impact of general elections and midterm elections on risk markets. According to statistics from 1950 to 2024, general elections and midterm elections are still favorable for risk markets. Although some friends mentioned that the market was poor in 2018 and 2022, and midterm elections may not necessarily be beneficial for the market, from a macro perspective, both 2018 and 2022 were periods of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

If we exclude the impact of interest rate hikes, for example, the returns in 2006, 2010, and 2014 were quite good. By the time of the 2026 midterm elections, it is highly likely that we will be in a period of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, unless inflation rises significantly. Otherwise, the environment for the midterm elections in 2026 should still be favorable.

As for the current decline, I personally believe that the greater possibility is due to the liquidity shortage caused by the government shutdown. I will elaborate on this issue in more detail in tomorrow's weekly report. Moreover, after the shutdown ends, it often tends to have a positive stimulating effect on risk markets. The framework for this part of the article has already been completed, and I will be able to publish it tomorrow.

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