Cryptocurrency News
November 1st Highlights:
1. Bitwise updates XRP ETF application documents, with a management fee rate of 0.34%.
2. Crypto bank Custodia loses again in the fight for a Federal Reserve master account.
3. California regulators impose a $675,000 fine on Bitcoin ATM operator Coinhub.
4. Musk: Will launch an instant messaging app "X Chat" with "Bitcoin-like" crypto features.
5. MEXC apologizes to "White Whale" traders, resolving the incident of freezing $3 million in funds.
Trading Insights
Four Stages of Major Player Involvement in Digital Currency: A Practical Breakdown from Accumulation to Distribution
Accumulation Stage: The major player's "quiet accumulation" period. The core action of major funds in this stage is to collect chips at low prices. At this time, the major player is the main buyer, while retail investors are mostly sellers. From the market characteristics, it can be judged through the relationship between volume and price: when the price of digital currency is in a low range, there will be a stepwise increase in volume (trading volume gradually increases), accumulation (continuous large transactions), and simultaneous rise in volume and price (price rises along with trading volume). These characteristics correspond directly to the chip distribution chart, reflecting that the major player is steadily accumulating.
Rally Stage: The major player's "profit-taking" period. After completing the accumulation, the price of digital currency will move away from its cost zone, and the major player begins to realize paper profits. In this stage, the major player will use a small amount of funds to wash out (oscillate and consolidate, clearing retail investors' floating chips), while most chips remain unchanged; corresponding to the chip distribution chart, a large number of chips still occupy the bottom area, which is the major player's core holding, aiming to wait for subsequent high-level cashing out, pushing the price further up.
Peak Stage: The major player's "preparation to exit" signal period. When the price of digital currency is at a high level, if a large number of chips suddenly disappear from the bottom area, it is a clear sign of the major player’s exit. The key characteristics of this stage are: low-level chips continuously move to high levels and form a dense accumulation at high levels, while the market turnover rate significantly increases (a large number of chips are exchanged at high levels), indicating that the major player is accelerating the transfer of chips, and the price is about to peak.
Distribution Stage: The major player's "cashing out" closing period. After the major player completes profit-taking at high levels, market chips will be fully concentrated in the high range, with no major player holdings at the bottom. At this time, the major player's selling actions have been completed, and the digital currency subsequently lacks upward momentum. Investors should not continue to hold and should immediately take stop-loss or take-profit actions to avoid being trapped.
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Data is real, and each order has a screenshot from the time it was issued.
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BTC
Analysis
Although the data for Bitcoin and Ethereum was not good yesterday, both showing net outflows, the amount of funds flowing out of Ethereum is only one-third of that of Bitcoin. When sentiment is poor, investors tend to sell Bitcoin more; it is unclear if this is because more Ethereum is being held at a loss, and investors are reluctant to sell.
BlackRock's investors remain the largest sellers, with their reductions still exceeding the total reductions of all other institutions combined. Traditional investors' attitudes towards cryptocurrencies are gradually fading, and there has been a shift of funds to the US stock market. After a short-term rebound, attention should be paid to the weekly candlestick situation; ideally, we want to see it recover above the key level of 112,000. Otherwise, the likelihood of a retest of the key level of 105,000 will increase. Today's spot ETF shows a net outflow, while large on-chain whales are buying heavily, and all positions should be firmly held.
ETH
Analysis
Although the sentiment on the Ethereum chain is suppressed by macro factors, the Federal Reserve's halt in balance sheet reduction indicates that a policy turning point has emerged. Even if there is no interest rate cut in December, the trend remains unchanged. Coupled with expectations for the Trump cycle in 2026, the long-term liquidity environment remains positive. I continue to hold long positions, taking profits and replenishing a few times during this period. If extreme volatility leads to increased risk, I will enter the spot market. From the perspective of chips and trading behavior, there are no signs of panic; the supporting strength is still present, which seems more like a short-term sentiment adjustment rather than a trend disruption.
After a short-term pullback near the key level of 3674, it quickly rebounded. Attention should also be paid to whether the weekly level can recover above the significant level of 4040, as this will be the most important point here. Currently, there are signs that the total holdings of large whales are slowing down.
Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article has a certain lag. If you have any questions, feel free to consult.
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