Good afternoon, everyone! Today, let's get straight to the point and discuss "why a bear market is coming" in a structured way: "performance → debunking misconceptions → logical reasoning → revealing the truth → providing strategies." This will be all hard-hitting content, and understanding it will help you avoid many pitfalls!
Click the link to watch the video: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1PF1uB5E3B/
1. First, let's showcase the performance: The Federal Reserve's operations netted 5000 points, so why didn't I exit?
Let me set the stage: this round of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions was executed smoothly! Last night's all-night live stream was not in vain:
Before the data was released, I preemptively placed a short position at 112300;
After the data came out, I added another short position at 111500;
During the live stream, I also called for a short at the current price of 111800-112000, with a minimum profit of 5000 points!
Although I've given back quite a bit of profit now, I haven't closed my positions — it's not greed, but a conviction that tells me: even if there are fluctuations, holding on is an opportunity to catch the "bear market initiation"! In trading, we can't just focus on the immediate profit; we need to look at the bigger picture.
2. The biggest misconception in the market: The drop is not due to Powell's hawkish stance! Reviewing the October 11th waterfall helps understand.
Many people say, "The recent drop in Bitcoin is because Powell turned hawkish and mentioned uncertainty about a rate cut in December." If you think this way, I can only say: that's completely wrong! Overthinking incorrect conclusions will only lead you further astray.
To understand this drop, we need to look back at the "whole network liquidation waterfall" on October 11th:
At that time, 1.6 million people were liquidated, with a total amount exceeding 40 billion dollars, and the liquidation points were concentrated between 117000-120000;
All long positions in this range were cleared out at once, creating a "liquidity vacuum zone" — simply put, no one is standing guard here.
You can easily deduce: if the bull market were still ongoing, this vacuum zone would need to be "filled with liquidity," right? It would directly pull up and not be stable! Some say, "Money can push the market," but that's pure fallacy — money needs to be converted into "long position liquidity"! Even at a 50% discount, 20 billion dollars in long positions would be too much for market makers to handle!
So the core standard for judging a bull market is simple: there must be a range-bound consolidation to absorb liquidity between 117000-120000. But just a few days ago, the market surged to 116000, failing to break 117000, not stabilizing, and certainly not consolidating — none of the conditions were met, which is why I say "the bull market is dead"!
3. Technical + News Double Hammer: Monthly close signals bear market, the "reservoir" is about to dry up.
It's not enough to just review; we need to look at both technical and news aspects to determine the overall direction.
1. Technical Aspect: Monthly close signals bear market, key levels to remember.
Today is the monthly close, which is a "key node for the bear market initiation." Here are two core points:
Weekly bull market line: has already been tested for the fourth time; daily bull market line: also tested once at 4 AM;
Want a reversal? Today, it must push up decisively, at least breaking 112000! But it hasn't even touched 112000 — this is a "forward-looking signal" for the bear market.
Another critical point: 116000 is the confirmation signal for the bear market. Whether it breaks through or not, as long as it does, the bear market is a done deal! I previously mentioned that "the bull market line would break at the beginning of next month," and the "up and down washout" over the past two weeks aligns perfectly with that prediction — the rebound from 116000 this morning is good for us: it pushes the break time to next month, giving us preparation time.
2. News Aspect: US-China compromise + rate cut logic, the crypto "reservoir" is about to dry up.
Many people think "rate cuts are good news," but this time it's different — rate cuts are absolutely a bearish trend for the crypto market! Don't find this contradictory; let me explain:
There are two major events this week that need to be viewed together:
The first: US-China talks in Seoul. No joint announcement, no expected good news (US stocks, crypto, and gold all fell), and Trump didn't take credit — essentially, it's "mutual compromise": the US cancels tariffs, and we resume exporting goods to the US to help alleviate its debt.
The second: Powell's "reluctant rate cut." The Federal Reserve has only two goals: maintain the dollar's credibility and protect employment. Powell's two rate cuts are merely to appease Trump — his term ends in May next year, and he doesn't want to repeat the "Burns stagflation" debacle (where Burns was pressured by Nixon to cut rates, leading to stagflation in the US, and he was left in disgrace).
Why is this bearish? Because the crypto market was previously a "dollar reservoir":
When US-China trade decoupled, the 38 trillion dollars printed by the US couldn't flow into the market (for fear of inflation), so it had to be stored in crypto, US stocks, and gold;
Now that there is a compromise, with goods matched, the water in the reservoir will flow into the market — with less water, Bitcoin can only depreciate! For example: if there is 100 dollars in the reservoir and 100 Bitcoins, each is worth 1 dollar; if 50 dollars flow out, each is only worth 0.5 dollars!
As for Trump's eagerness to cut rates? It's purely for the election — the MAGA folks are losing patience, and he can only rely on rate cuts to maintain his image. Want to wait for large-scale rate cuts? You’ll have to wait for Powell to step down and for a more compliant chairperson (most likely Milan) to discuss "bull market recovery" then!
Let me add a note here: the following is a personal fabrication by the Coin Victory Group; any resemblance is purely coincidental: This global tariff war has now turned into a competition between the US and China, with a pack of hyenas waiting to see who wins. The losing side will be overwhelmed, and the wall will fall, so no one can show even a hint of surrender. But essentially, both sides have realized that continuing to fight only leads to mutual bleeding. The Coin Victory Group has previously mentioned that the hardline stance between the US and China was fundamentally a misjudgment; we thought US debt would explode soon, and if we held on a bit longer, the US would collapse. The US thought China's local government debt would explode, and if they held on a bit longer, China would collapse. Now, after all this fighting, we find that neither side has collapsed, so we can only sit down and talk. However, both sides have raised their stakes too high, making it difficult to back down easily. So both sides have tacitly compromised; there are no winners in this trade war, and the core is compromise.
Additionally, according to the Coin Victory Group's previous analysis, the bull market line will break at the beginning of next month, and this month has maintained a washout above the bull market line. The past two weeks' market movements have been obvious to anyone, right? The Coin Victory Group's analysis has completely matched the market, so now that 116000 hasn't been broken, including the big rebound from 116000 this morning, while it's a rise for us, it's actually good news, pushing the break time to next month, which is the result the Coin Victory Group most wants to see.
4. The truth behind the altcoin crash: It wasn't a harvest during the crash; they had already rolled out with the money.
During the waterfall on October 11th, many altcoins dropped over 90%, and some said it was a "collective harvest by the project teams." The result is correct, but the process is wrong — the harvesting ended before the crash!
The core of maintaining coin prices is "market makers providing liquidity":
Bitcoin could stabilize despite the drop because market makers had sufficient reserves to handle orders;
Altcoins crashed because market makers were just stand-ins for the project teams — they had already withdrawn their funds!
For example: a project team issued "S coin," raised 10 million, withdrew 9 million, and left 1 million for market makers. Normally, with daily trading volumes in the hundreds of thousands, 1 million is enough; but during a crash, everyone rushes to withdraw, and a 10 million order needs to be closed, but 1 million simply can't handle it, leading to a collective liquidation and a price free fall!
If the project team was optimistic about the bull market, why would they withdraw their money and run? They could operate well for four years; if others collapse and they don't, their reputation would rise, and they could raise even more money in a bull market — so there’s only one reason: they know there’s no bull market and just want to cash out quickly!
Someone asked, "Why didn't BNB crash?" Brother, can BNB be compared to altcoins? CZ knows the difference: compared to harvesting with BNB, managing the long-term profits of the Binance platform is much more appealing!
5. Short-term operations & Summary: Short around 109500, keep half a position to catch the top next month.
Today has been packed with information, so let me give a clear short-term operation strategy; don’t mess around:
Core strategy: repeatedly short around 109500;
Entry timing: short whenever it rises to 109500 and then falls back;
Profit target: 107500; don’t exit all at once, keep half a position;
Key goal: wait for next month to break 116000 and catch the top opportunity of the bear market!
In conclusion: this bear market is not something that can be manipulated by the big players or Trump; it is an inevitable result of "the reservoir running dry + technical breakdown + project teams running away." Don’t fantasize about a bull market returning; first, learn to survive in a bear market, which is more important than anything else!
If you find this useful, please like and follow! If you have any questions, leave a comment, and I will respond to each one!
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