All of the fear/heaviness that I've been seeing in the market has helped to ignite such a strong rally in the equity market, but the thing that's caught me by surprise is that I also expected BTC to participate.

Off the October 10th lows, the S&P 500 is outperforming Bitcoin, +7.9% vs. +5.6%.

Now the Nasdaq-100 is outperforming Bitcoin YTD.

There's a malaise, on a relative basis, in an environment where risk appetite is strong and increasing.

As I've pointed out before, these periods of underperformance vs. the stock market have (more often than not) produced the next leg higher for Bitcoin, both on an absolute and relative basis.

I've been (and remain) patient for this scenario.

But the longer it takes, the more concerning it becomes.

Why is it happening?

Don't know.

Even if I did know, what good does that accomplish?

This backtest over the past few sessions feels normal.

Rejection on the AVWAP From the ATHs, which is something that I pointed out in advance.

This further proves the importance of breaking (and closing) above that AVWAP, shown on the chart in orange.

Especially as we attempt to use the 21/55-day EMAs as support after the rebound on the 200-day EMA.

I still view this price action as constructive, on an absolute basis.

But it's clear, at least to me, that bulls need to tighten their grip sooner rather than later.

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