I was really tempted to buy $UMA as Polymarket success should've pumped it.

Yet $UMA trading below bear market lows.

Why?

Polymarket trades $1B USD monthly bets but less than 0.3% of outcomes go into disputes.

UMA only matters when a dispute happens.

So while Polymarket grows fast, UMA’s demand stays low. The success didn't translate into token value.

Ironically, the lower the $UMA MC the higher the governance risk.

With a $100M MC, it takes only a few % of token supply to effect a vote.

There were already (reported or purposely FUDed?) cases where whales influenced outcomes.

That hurts trust as UMA rewards consensus instead of truth.

The final nail in the coffin is recent switch to Chainlink for price markets and even bigger is their own POLY token launch.

I suppose POLY will be used for disputes and governance.

So, why bet on a proxy token that 1) has low value accrual 2) is being replaced by another oracle 3) and Polymarket token is launching.

Perhaps @tomkysar explained it best:

What he means is that even protocols using UMA don't really trust it.

I still believe that $UMA could've pumped if it was 2020-21 bull cycle.

But crypto market has matured and pure narrative plays without real fundamentals won't work.

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