Do not worry about having no friends on the road ahead; on the investment path, there are like-minded individuals. Good afternoon, everyone! I am the King of Coins from the Coin Victory Group. Thank you all for coming here to watch the articles and videos from the King. Every day, I bring you different news from the crypto world and precise market analysis.

Click the link to watch the video: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1q4yCBfECZ/

Today, we won't get too dry. Let's break down the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the intricacies of Bitcoin and Ethereum in a way that's just right and not verbose! First, let's talk about the main event — the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting early Thursday morning. The entire crypto world is watching old Powell (Jerome Powell) to see what new tricks he can pull this time. In my judgment, it’s highly likely that they will just go through the usual process and lower rates by 25 basis points. Why do I say this? The CPI data hasn’t dragged behind, and inflation hasn’t exploded, so he doesn’t need to stubbornly maintain a hawkish stance against the market. Moreover, the PCE data won’t be released until the next day, and the Federal Reserve wants to "maintain stability" without causing chaos in the market before the meeting. As long as employment doesn’t collapse and the economy doesn’t suddenly crash, the expectation of another rate cut in December is as solid as a nail!

Now, market sentiment has calmed down. As long as old Powell doesn’t say anything reckless and Trump doesn’t go crazy at the last minute, the overall rhythm won’t be disrupted. For example, the market finally breathed a sigh of relief with the recent tariff extension; the government shutdown is just a matter of time. I’m just afraid that a small incident might suddenly pop up and cause disruption, as this market can’t withstand too much turmoil.

Let’s turn our attention to Bitcoin. The market structure needs to be clarified: short-term support is at 112K, but the CME gap at 110.7K hasn’t been filled yet. This position is like a "little tail" that will eventually need to be filled. If it does drop, don’t panic; the key points are 107K and 102K — even if it falls below 102K, it’s not the end of the world. It’s normal to see a new low in a volatile market, and it doesn’t affect the long-term expectation of new highs. Moreover, the current market structure is very similar to the 200-day consolidation from March to October 2024! Back then, after a wave of upward movement, Bitcoin started to consolidate without breaking through either way, making people want to smash their keyboards. The current situation feels almost the same; before stabilizing the short-term holders' average price at 113K, both bulls and bears will continue to fight! If it can regain 113K and break through the liquidity zone at 116K, it would indicate a temporary victory for the bulls; conversely, if 116K gets hunted for stop losses, both sides will have to start over, which is quite frustrating.

Also, this week is packed with macro events, with the FOMC interest rate meeting being the core. However, there will definitely be some spikes in the short term. Don’t think that only non-farm payrolls can cause "up and down spikes"; during such key meeting points, once the news comes out, both bulls and bears might get stopped out. So, don’t rush in; take it steady!

Now, let’s talk about Ethereum, which has a pretty subtle rhythm. It couldn’t break through the MA60 on the daily chart and has dropped, but there’s support from MA120 below, and with the MACD forming a golden cross below zero, the adjustment space isn’t that big. A short-term pullback to around 4000 is about as low as it can go — once the MACD slowly climbs back to the zero axis, there’s a chance for the market to push towards the previous high of 4250. In simple terms, Ethereum is more like gathering strength now, washing out those who can’t hold on, and then making another move. As long as Bitcoin doesn’t have any major issues, Ethereum’s rhythm won’t be disrupted and may even lead the rise, being more aggressive than Bitcoin! The following key levels should be remembered: Resistance levels: second resistance at 117300, first resistance at 115800; Support levels: first support at 113400, second support at 111800. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 113.8K, still undergoing technical adjustments. The upper resistance at 115.5K is a hard barrier; it has been tested several times yesterday without breaking through, clearly indicating that the main force is holding it back! The current trend is a normal pullback; the key is whether it can stabilize — although the 200MA on the 4-hour level was briefly broken, it’s not a big issue. As long as it can regain that level, the chance for a rebound is still there. The most critical short-term support is 113400, which coincides with the 20MA, making it today’s defensive focus! If this position holds, the bulls still have face; if even the 20MA can’t hold, then the short-term trend will have to turn bearish. Previously, the RSI entered the overbought zone, and this adjustment is just a technical pullback, so there’s no need to panic. This "squat" is actually gathering strength, and once enough energy is built up, it can rise again!

Once the RSI turns back up and the trading volume increases, the market could surge again at any time. Focus on the 115.5K level; if it breaks through with volume, the upper space will open up directly, with a potential rise of 4.3%! The first resistance at 115800 is in the previous high zone, and it’s crucial to see if the trading volume can increase; the RSI is currently weakening in buying pressure, so we need to pay attention to when it turns strong again. As long as it turns up, breaking through this level shouldn’t be a problem. If the second resistance at 117300 can be strongly broken, the target will be directly aimed at 120800; but if the RSI moves sideways in the neutral zone, it indicates that the market is gathering strength, and the chances of not falling but rising are even greater! In terms of support, 113400 is a must-hold for the bulls; maintaining this level is essential to sustain the rebound rhythm. The second support at 111800 is around the 200MA; if 113K breaks, this will be the next "braking point," and if it breaks further, then we really need to be cautious. The strategy for the wave on 10.28: Long: Enter around 113400; if it drops below 113000, add to the position, with a stop-loss set at 112400, targeting 115500 to 115800. Short: Not currently considered, don’t short blindly.

Finally, let me say something from the heart: If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to follow them long-term. Don’t just look at a few market movements and jump to conclusions! There are too many "performative players" in this market; today they show screenshots of long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they are "catching tops and bottoms" every time, but in reality, it’s all hindsight! What’s truly worth paying attention to is the consistency of trading logic that can withstand scrutiny, not those who only come out to "perform" when the market moves! Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to distinguish who is a true thinker in the field and who is just a dream seller! Our content is exclusively planned by the Coin Victory Group. Search for "Coin Victory Group" on WeChat; we have the same name across the internet! If you want to learn real-time strategies, liquidation techniques, or K-line and contract methods, you can chat with the Coin Victory Group. We currently have free experience groups and community live streams for fans, all filled with valuable content, no fluff! Let’s keep an eye on the meeting together early Thursday morning; if there’s any news, we can chat anytime. If you find this useful, please like and follow to stay on track!

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