Master Discusses Hot Topics:
The entire market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting early Thursday morning. I also want to see what tricks old Powell can pull this time. It’s highly likely that he will routinely lower the interest rate by 25 basis points, as the CPI data has already given him some leeway.
With inflation not exploding, the Federal Reserve has no reason to act hawkish. Anyway, the PCE data won’t be out until the next day; they just want to stabilize things and not create chaos in the market. As long as employment doesn’t collapse and the economy doesn’t flash crash, the expectation for another rate cut in December remains solid.
The sentiment has clearly calmed down now. As long as old Powell and Trump don’t start talking nonsense or go crazy at the last minute, the overall market rhythm won’t be disrupted. Including the recent extension of tariffs, it’s a bit of a breather. The government shutdown is also just a matter of time; I’m really worried that some unexpected issue might arise.
Back to the market, from the structural perspective, 112K is short-term support. However, the CME gap at 110.7K has not been filled, and this position will eventually need to be addressed. If it does drop, don’t panic; 107K and 102K are the real key points.
But if it breaks below 102K, it won’t be the end of the world. It’s normal to set a new low in a volatile market, which doesn’t affect the long-term expectation of new highs. I hope the market can return to the rhythm of the early month low and the end month high, so that many people aren’t washed out by a single spike.
Although this week is packed with macro events, with the FOMC being the core, there will also be short-term spikes. Don’t think that only non-farm payrolls can be violent; at such key nodes, the probability of sharp movements in both directions is very high. Shorts can get swept, and longs may not be safe either.
The price movements over the past two months have already provided a reference. At the end of August and the end of September, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after breaking below the short-term holder average price of 113K. Although the sharp drop on October 11 was more severe, it didn’t collapse immediately after breaking; instead, it slowly climbed back up.
Such high volume and long wicks often signal that bulls are quietly accumulating. In other words, while it appears to be panic, the bottom chips are actually changing hands.
The current structure is very similar to the 200-day oscillation from March to October 2024. At that time, Bitcoin completed a major upward wave distribution, then fell into a repeated sideways movement, with neither side breaking through, which drove people’s sentiments to the brink.
The flavor of this current market is almost the same. Until it stabilizes above the short-term holder average price of 113K, both bulls and bears are still competing. If it can regain 113K and break through the liquidity dense area at 116K, it would mean a stage victory for the bulls. Conversely, if 116K gets hunted for stop losses, the bull-bear switch will have to start over.
As for Ethereum, the rhythm is similarly delicate. After failing to break through the MA60 on the daily chart, it has pulled back, but there is support from the MA120 below, and the MACD has formed a golden cross below zero, indicating that the adjustment space is actually limited.
A short-term pullback to around 4000 is about the limit, and once the MACD slowly climbs back to the zero axis, the market is expected to challenge the previous high of 4250 again.
In other words, Ethereum now seems to be gathering strength, washing out floating positions before making another move. As long as Bitcoin doesn’t throw any surprises, Ethereum’s rhythm won’t be disrupted and may even lead the charge.
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Level Reference:
Second Resistance Level: 117300
First Resistance Level: 115800
Support Level Reference:
First Support Level: 113400
Second Support Level: 111800
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 113.8K, still in a technical adjustment phase. The upper resistance at 115.5K is a hard barrier, and yesterday’s failure to break through indicates that the main force is holding firm here. The current movement is a normal pullback, but the key is whether it can stabilize.
Currently, the 200MA on the 4-hour chart has been briefly broken, but it’s not a big issue; as long as it can regain that level, the chance for a rebound remains. The most critical short-term support is at 113.4K, where the 20MA is also layered, making it today’s defensive focus.
As long as this level holds, the bulls can maintain their face. If even the 20MA can’t hold, it would mean a shift to a bearish short-term trend. The RSI has already entered the overbought zone, and this adjustment is purely a technical pullback. There’s no need to panic; this kind of dip is actually a buildup of strength.
As long as we wait for the RSI to turn upward again, coupled with increased trading volume, the market could rise again at any time. The key level to watch is 115.5K; once it breaks with volume, the upper space will open up directly, potentially leading to a 4.3% increase.
The first resistance at 115.8K is in the previous high zone, and it’s crucial to see if the trading volume can increase. The RSI is currently weakening in buying pressure, so pay attention to when it strengthens again. Once the RSI turns upward, breaking through this level shouldn’t be a problem.
If the second resistance at 117.3K is strongly broken, the target will be directly aimed at 120.8K. However, if the RSI moves sideways in the neutral zone, it indicates that the market is building strength, and the chances of not falling but rising are even greater.
The first support is the previously mentioned 113.4K, which the bulls must defend. If this level holds, the market can maintain its rebound rhythm. The second support at 111.8K is around the 200MA. If 113K is broken, this will be the next stopping point.
10.28 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Buy near 113400, add more below 113000, defend at 112400, target: 115500-115800
Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot their long positions, and tomorrow they summarize their shorts, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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