A turning point has emerged in the US-China trade deadlock. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng concluded a two-day closed-door meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, announcing a very substantive framework agreement. The US has temporarily suspended the imposition of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, while China has also postponed restrictions on rare earth exports, pressing the pause button on over a year of friction.
After news broke on the morning of the 27th, global market sentiment instantly turned positive. Bitcoin surged sharply in a short time, rising from around $113,470 to near the take-profit point of the long position mentioned in the previous article at $116,380, an increase of nearly 3.85% compared to the evening of the 27th. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's price has slightly retreated to $115,700, with a 24-hour increase of 2.8%. Ethereum is priced at $4,226, with a 24-hour increase of about 6%.
The strong rebound in cryptocurrencies not only set a new high in nearly two weeks but also triggered large-scale short liquidations. According to data, a total of $358 million in short positions were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market over the past 48 hours. Additionally, the market is focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points to 4%.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
From the chart, we can see that the Fibonacci retracement range is from the bottom of 102,045 to the top of 126,199. The current price has broken through the 50% (approximately 114,127) key watershed and has encountered significant resistance near 61.8% (116,972). The key support level is 111,272 (38.2% retracement line), which is an important defensive area if a short-term pullback occurs. If this line is broken, it may test 107,746 (23.6% retracement line). The key resistance level is 116,972 (61.8%). If the price can steadily break through this line and hold, it will open up upward space, targeting the 121,230-126,000 area.
The Bollinger Bands currently show a slightly upward opening shape, with the middle band (approximately 112,500) providing strong support. The current price is running below the upper band (approximately 116,300). The price being close to the upper band indicates that the market has entered a short-term overbought area. If it fails to break through the upper band pressure, a short-term pullback correction may occur, retracing to the middle band or near the Bollinger middle band to seek support. If the Bollinger Bands continue to open and are accompanied by increased trading volume, the market may further break through the upper band, forming a trend-following upward structure, with target levels looking towards the 120,000-121,000 area.
The current MACD indicator's DIF line is operating in the positive area and remains above the DEA line. Although the MACD red histogram has slightly contracted, it still maintains an upward trend, indicating that bullish momentum is still continuing. If the MACD fast and slow lines maintain a golden cross shape at a high level, the trend remains bullish and can be seen as a continuation phase of the upward trend. However, if the MACD histogram continues to shorten and shows a reversal, it may indicate a weakening of bullish momentum, leading to a short-term consolidation or pullback in price.
The KDJ three lines are currently in the overbought area above 80, with the K line and J line showing signs of flattening at a high level, indicating that there is some profit-taking pressure in the short-term market. If the KDJ forms a death cross at a high level, the price may experience a rapid pullback, with support to watch in the 112,000-111,000 area; if the indicator flattens at a high level and then forms a golden cross upward again, it may indicate that the market enters a strong continuation period, with the price likely to break through the key resistance at 116,972.
In summary, Bitcoin is currently at a critical stage of short-term overbought and medium-term bullish trend. If the upward target can effectively break through 116,972, the short-term target can look towards 121,200, with further strength likely to test the previous high of 126,000. If the downward risk is blocked and falls back, watch for support at 111,200; if it breaks below, it may revisit 107,700 or even 105,000. From a structural perspective, the market is overall in a mid-term upward wave after rebounding from the bottom, but due to significant short-term overbought pressure, it is expected that in the next 1-3 trading days, there may be high-level fluctuations or slight pullbacks. Subsequently, if the MACD resumes volume and the KDJ forms a second golden cross, a new round of upward momentum may begin. Bitcoin's current trend structure is healthy, and the trend remains strong, but it is approaching a phase resistance level, requiring caution against technical pullbacks. If the price stabilizes at the 112,000 support and trading volume recovers, the bullish main wave will continue; if it breaks below, the medium-short term will enter an adjustment cycle.
In conclusion, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
Bitcoin can be bought in small batches in the 114,120-112,740 range, targeting 116,972, and if it stabilizes effectively, it can continue to look towards the vicinity of 121,230.
Giving you a hundred percent accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the correct mindset and trend. Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; suggestions may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset can earn you a lifetime!
Writing time: (2025-10-28, 02:00)
(Written by - Daxian Says Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; proceed with caution!
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