Good evening, everyone! Today, let's skip the fluff and dive straight into the hottest market trends — the focus of the crypto world these past few days has to be the negotiations between the East and the U.S.! As soon as the news broke that the 155% tariff set for November 1 would be postponed, the market finally got a breather, like someone who has been holding their breath finally exhaling!
Click the link to watch the video: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1DVs2z4Ego/
We all know that the scent of capital is sharper than a dog's nose! As soon as the news of the tariff postponement emerged, Bitcoin surged over the weekend, jumping two thousand dollars in one go, soaring through the night without a pause! To put it simply, the bad news has been fully priced in, and the good news is starting to materialize. Now we just need to wait for the data to drop on October 30 and see how the market reacts! Looking at the URPD data, we can see that the chip structure is very healthy, with solid support, making it difficult for Bitcoin to drop in the short term! More importantly, this week is not going to be calm! The FOMC interest rate decision and MSTR's Q3 earnings report are coming together, and these two combined are definitely a "big deal" in the crypto world, with maximum impact! Personally, I believe Bitcoin will definitely have something to say about 116K in the next couple of days; it's just a matter of whether it's sooner or later! I don't know if you all noticed, but during the early hours today, there was a surge that formed a nearly equal height double top structure around 116K. Now, 116K has completely become a "liquidity magnet" — either it breaks through decisively, opening up space above; or it gets washed out by the main force and falls back after a shakeout!
Let's not guess blindly; just focus on this position: if it breaks through, we follow the trend. If we see signs of stop-loss hunting, quickly pull back and don't jump into the pit! The previous target for the market was 116K, with major support still at 107K. If it breaks below that, we look at 102K, but for now, the market is trending upwards! Many people ask me if it can directly surge to 120K; to be honest, the probability is extremely low! The current market theme is still oscillation, not a main upward wave. 116K to 120K is a key resistance zone; it might push up, but it's hard to break through in one go! If 120K is indeed broken, I will admit I was wrong in my judgment, but for now, we are neither catching falling knives nor chasing highs; we prioritize stability! Looking at the daily chart, there are still three to five days of upward space. After reaching the top, combined with the interest rate cut, there will likely be a few days of slight adjustment before continuing to rise. We just need to grasp the rhythm!
After discussing Bitcoin, let's talk about Ethereum — this guy has been really strong lately! One bullish candle piercing through three resistances, it's so powerful that it has no friends! As soon as the talks ended yesterday, it surged from 3950 to break through 4000, and today it reached above 4200, almost without a pause! The shorts around 4100 have been completely cleared out, and now we are just watching the range between 4300 and 4350! This trend is too standard: after the Vegas tunnel golden cross, it has pulled back three times, a pure precursor to an explosion! In the short term, the 4-hour chart has already broken through, with pressure above around 4255, which is the 0.382 retracement resistance! As long as it doesn't drop below 4100 on the pullback, it's safe to remain bullish! Personally, I judge that Ethereum will at least surge to 4380 to 4400; trying to fight against the shorts now is purely looking for trouble, except for ultra-short-term trades!
Next, let's talk about the key levels to watch, so remember them:
Two resistance levels: second resistance at 116400, first resistance at 115400;
Two support levels: first support at 114300, second support at 113400!
The downward trend line on the 4-hour chart has been completely broken, which means the market has officially reversed, the bears are out of the game, and the bulls are back in control! Now, focus on the 4-hour 200MA; as long as it doesn't break below, this rebound is as solid as a rock! 115K is the key pullback confirmation zone; only if it firmly holds above 115.2 to 115.3K can the market continue to push upwards! The short-term support is at 114.3K; if it stabilizes here, the bullish pattern remains unchanged! The strong resistance above is at 116.4K, which is the previous high; if it rushes up to this point, there might be a brief pullback. It's wiser to wait for a pullback before entering, rather than buying at high levels! If it can consolidate and oscillate between 114.3K and 115.4K before rising, that would be a healthy upward movement. After breaking the first resistance at 115.4K, we will see if it can stabilize at 115.2 to 115.3K; if it does, it indicates that the 115K support is established, and then we can expect a stair-step rise! The second resistance at 116.4K is a high-risk area for short-term trades; don't fantasize about a massive surge! If it rebounds to this area, it's rational to take profits in batches; don't think about capturing the entire move. Securing profits while climbing is the way to control risk!
In terms of support, 114.3K is the bullish bottom line; if it holds, the market will lean bullish. After breaking 115K, we will gradually adjust stop-loss and holding ranges to achieve a good risk-reward ratio! The second support at 113.4K, if it drops to this level, indicates that the bears are gathering strength; we need to see if the 200MA can still hold. If it holds above the moving average, the bullish pattern remains intact; if it breaks below, don't fight it, just run! Overall, the downward trend has been broken, the market has reversed, and it is still a rebound logic, but there is resistance above, so don't chase blindly; wait for a pullback! The strategy for the wave on October 27 is also shared with everyone: for long positions, look at the range between 113400 and 114000, enter in batches, targeting 115400; for short positions, we won't consider them for now!
Finally, a heartfelt note: if you want to learn real things from the blogger, you need to follow for the long term; don't just glance at a few market trends and jump to conclusions! There are too many "performers" in the market, flaunting long positions today and short positions tomorrow, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it's all hindsight! What is truly reliable is trading logic that is consistent and withstands scrutiny, not jumping in when the market moves! Don't be fooled by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation is the only way to know who truly understands the market and who is just dreaming!
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