Benefiting from U.S. President Trump's pardon of BN founder Zhao Changpeng, both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency have risen, with the market atmosphere warming up today, driving Bitcoin back above the $110,000 mark.
The overall cryptocurrency market has strengthened again today, with Bitcoin priced at $111,235 at the time of writing, a rise of about 2.22% in the last 24 hours. Besides Bitcoin, Ethereum also surged by 3.6% to $3,976, while BNB rose by 5.2% to $1,141, spurred by the positive news of Zhao Changpeng's pardon.
Next, the market's focus shifts to the U.S. Consumer Price Index for September, which will be announced tonight. Although some departments of the U.S. government remain shut down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the announcement as usual. This is likely to be the last and most important data report that the Federal Reserve will see before its interest rate decision meeting next week.
The market is currently fully betting on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points at this meeting and making another cut at the final annual meeting in December. The CPI data results will re-anchor the market's view of the U.S. economy. If the CPI data is mild, it will support Bitcoin's rebound momentum; if the data is too hot, it may accelerate the market's risk-off wave.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
Current market trends show that the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is around $110,500, with prices having re-established above the middle band and encountering resistance near the upper band at $111,800. The Bollinger Bands are showing a slight contraction, indicating that the short-term market is gradually shifting from a one-sided decline to a phase of oscillation and rebound. If the price can effectively break through the upper band and stabilize above $112,000, the Bollinger Bands may open up to form a new upward trend, targeting the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $116,950. Conversely, if the price faces pressure near the upper band and falls back, it may retest the middle band support at $110,000 or even dip to the lower band support at $107,000. Overall, the market is at a critical juncture where bulls are attempting to counterattack, but it has not completely broken away from the oscillation pattern.
From the MACD indicator perspective, the DIF line has crossed above the DEA line, forming a slight golden cross, and the MACD red histogram has begun to expand, but the momentum still appears insufficient. This indicates that the short-term rebound strength is increasing, but a trend upward has not yet formed. If the MACD red histogram continues to expand, buying power is expected to persist, and the price may further test the $114,000-$116,000 area. Conversely, if the MACD red histogram shortens and forms a death cross with the two lines, the rebound momentum will be insufficient, and the price may fall back into the bearish zone. Currently, the MACD signal is in the early stages of a rebound, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continues, with the key being whether the subsequent two K-lines can maintain the golden cross structure.
The KDJ indicator shows that the three lines are operating in a high region, with K at 83, D at 72, and J having reached 107, entering the overbought zone. This indicates that the short-term market has shown technical overbought conditions, posing a risk of a pullback. If the K line and D line form a downward cross, it may constitute a top divergence signal, and the price may fall back to the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level near $111,200. If the KDJ remains high and the MACD red histogram expands, it may trigger a strong breakout, targeting previous highs of $116,950 or even $126,000.
The price is currently oscillating near the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, which is a key turning point in technical analysis. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above $111,500, it indicates the end of the pullback and a trend reversal to bullish. If it faces repeated resistance and falls below the middle band, it may retest the $107,000 support or even dip to the bottom support at $102,000. Therefore, the area around $111,200 becomes a critical point for determining the subsequent trend direction, and close attention should be paid to the breakout situation at this level.
In summary, the current four-hour chart of Bitcoin shows an overall structure of "oscillation building a bottom, with a bias towards a strong rebound." Technical indicators suggest that market sentiment is gradually shifting from panic to tentative buying, but a key turning point has not yet been broken. If it can stabilize above the Bollinger middle band and Fibonacci 61.8% in the next 1-2 days, the market is expected to continue its rebound; conversely, if the KDJ death cross and MACD retreat resonate, it will return to the oscillating downward channel. Overall judgment: short-term bias towards bullish, mid-term still needs to confirm the breakout, currently at a critical stage of the oscillation range.
Based on the above analysis, the following suggestions are provided for reference.
1. If Bitcoin's price stabilizes above $111,500, consider going long, targeting $114,000-$116,900; with a stop loss at $109,800.
2. If Bitcoin rebounds and encounters resistance near the upper band, forming a KDJ death cross, consider trying a short position in the $112,000-$112,500 range, targeting $110,000-$107,500.
Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the right mindset and trend; teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. Suggestions may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset will earn you a lifetime!
Writing time: (2025-10-2, 17:20)
(Text - Master Says Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; proceed with caution!
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