Good evening, everyone! Let's get straight to the point tonight — the CPI. I've already explained everything in detail over the past couple of days, so those who understand will understand, and those who don't will just be guessing in vain. Let's get right to the essentials!
Click the link to watch the video: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1RzsHzaESS/
First, let's talk about the chips for Bitcoin. We can see from the URPD data: between 104K and 112K, that's where the chips for Bitcoin are piled up the most, with a whopping 2.92 million coins sitting there! Especially at 112K, there are 600,000 Bitcoins just at that price level — so if it drops down, this area is a natural "buying pool" that can hold up a wave! Looking at 112K and 117K, the chips are as solid as if they were welded there; the amount from last week is still the same! What does this indicate? Those who needed to cut losses have already done so, and what's left are the "stubborn holders" — they've been beaten down by the market and are numb to it; they won't sell when it drops, nor will they chase when it rises, just standing there!
Don't underestimate this group of stubborn holders; they are the ones supporting this "defensive wall"! In plain terms: even if there aren't many buyers, as long as there are fewer and fewer sellers, the support in this range becomes stronger! The market may seem quiet now, but this kind of silent "tension" often leads to explosive movements — it looks calm on the surface, but underneath, there are hidden currents! The market is like an "old trickster," secretly stirring things up, not giving you a chance to catch your breath! If you stop-loss once or twice, do you think you can add to your position? Just as you finish adding, you get hit back, doesn't that create a vivid picture?
This is how retail investors get worn down! But just when you feel disheartened and dare not jump in, the market quietly starts to rise! Those who understand know that this rhythm is not something retail investors can control. The main players are purely playing with your mindset — one moment they make you lick blood off the knife's edge, and the next, they hide a knife in the honey!
Although Bitcoin's pattern looks stable now, with no major ups and downs, just slowly moving up, it's hard for both bulls and bears to operate; this position is too awkward — neither up nor down! You say there's a major reversal? I still see the trend being dictated by bears! But it can't drop too hard either; the main players know very well: if all the retail investors are wiped out, who will they play with? So recently, this trend has been "faux gentle" — first slowly pulling up to regain your confidence, and as soon as you step in, they hit you with a surprise! We must remember: the short-term rebound is definitely not over, but don't be too "grand" about it; in this stage of the end of a bull market and the beginning of a bear market, whoever has a grand vision will be harvested!
Now let's talk about Ethereum; the recent trend has been quite frustrating! The 5-minute and 15-minute levels are full of spikes and washouts, playing with the market like a game! Those doing short-term trades must be getting dizzy — just after stopping losses, they look back and see the price back where it started; isn't that just pure toothpaste squeezing? But don't be fooled by the surface; on the 4-hour level, it still firmly stands above 3820, and the structure is relatively healthy. In the short term, it should at least test the 4000 mark; as for whether it can touch 4100, it all depends on whether tonight's CPI is strong!
Next, let's be straightforward and outline the key points: two resistance levels: the second resistance at 112500, and the first resistance at 111300; two support levels: the first support at 109100, and the second support at 107400!
From the 4-hour level, the market has directly broken through 110K and stabilized, maintaining the rebound momentum in the short term! What should we focus on next? Just keep an eye on whether the low points of the pullback can rise — as long as the lows keep getting higher, the rebound isn't over! Technically, the first support is at 109.1K; as long as this level holds, it's a healthy pullback, and the 20 and 60 moving averages are right on top of it. Today, let's treat this as the core defense zone; if it holds, the bulls will still have confidence!
The upper resistance to watch first is 111.3K; this is a strong wall for the short term, and today it's highly likely to test this level! If it can withstand the pullback and rise again, there’s a chance to push towards 112.5K! But don't underestimate the area at 112.5K; it's stacked with a bunch of long-term moving averages (60, 120, 20-day lines), making it a super strong pressure zone! Unless there’s external news to stimulate it, it’s highly likely to be a profit-taking area!
On the support side, 109.1K is the key for short-term trading today — if the price pulls back to around 109.3K to 109.4K, consider buying in batches! As long as this area isn't broken, the logic of the rebound still holds! If it really can't hold, then 107.4K is the last line of defense; that's the bottom line for the short term! If that breaks, it’s not just a pullback; it’s going to accelerate downwards, so don’t hesitate, just run!
In terms of trading strategy, the market has already rebounded for a while today, so don’t chase the highs! Wait for the pullback to confirm support before jumping in! The CPI will be announced at 8:30 tonight; whether the market will explode is uncertain. If you want to be safe, just hold steady and don’t rush in! Also, regarding the strategy from 10.23: for going long, look at the range of 109100 to 109400, enter in batches, targeting 111300 to 112500; for going short, wait for the price to break below 108700, then enter with the trend, targeting 107400!
Finally, let me say something heartfelt: if you truly want to learn from a blogger, you need to follow them long-term; don’t just watch a few market movements and jump to conclusions! There are too many "performative players" in this market — today they show screenshots of long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it look like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight! What’s truly worth paying attention to is the trading logic that is consistent and can withstand scrutiny, not those who only come out to "show off" when the market moves! Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are what help you distinguish who is genuinely thoughtful and who is just creating dreams for you!
This content is exclusively planned by the Coin Victory Group. Search for "Coin Victory Group" on WeChat; we have the same name across the internet! If you want real-time strategies, techniques for breaking even, or to learn about K-lines and contract methods, you can chat with the Coin Victory Group. We also have free experience groups and community live streams for fans, all full of valuable content, no fluff! That’s all for today; let’s keep an eye on the market together for tonight's CPI. If you find this useful, please like and follow!
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