Master Discusses Hot Topics:

The current market has no suspense; the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in October is as high as 99%, which means they are almost being forced to ease. The government shutdown has caused the labor participation rate to plummet, and even if the Fed puts on a tough front, they have to bow to policy.

The problem is that the December meeting is uncertain; inflation is still lurking, and they need to gather more data before pretending to be calm. Ultimately, the main theme for the Americans right now is monetary easing. As long as this thread continues, the market's imagination will not run dry. Even if reality is terrible, expectations can still support half the sky.

However, when I look at Bitcoin, the situation is not so good. The turnover rate has suddenly surged, indicating that panic is starting to spread. All chips above 100K are shaking, especially those who just bought the dip in the past two days. I thought that with Trump in office, the market would be saved, but instead, he has been continuously hammering it with his rhetoric.

Every time Trump speaks, it's like throwing a black pineapple into the market, especially enjoying stirring things up before the Friday close of U.S. stocks. For U.S. stocks, this level of volatility is nothing, but for the Bitcoin market, it directly breaks bones.

What's worse is that this Friday there will be CPI data, and inflation rising is almost a certainty. If the data is bad, market sentiment will plummet.

Returning to the market, since April 2024, Bitcoin has completed two phases of weekly adjustments and is now in the third phase. The core support for the short-term trend remains around 100K, with the previous two large spikes stabilizing in the range of 103.6 to 102K.

This indicates that this is the defensive bottom line for the bulls, but the current trend is too grinding. Once it breaks down, it will directly test the 100K integer support. There will usually be a strong resistance wave here, and the 100K plus or minus 2,000 points range is also the core battlefield for short-term bottom fishing.

Last night, Bitcoin retraced to the lower band of the five-day Bollinger Band around 106K and then rebounded, but the sustainability of this rebound depends on the bearish volume. If tonight it spikes down to touch the five-day EMA52 around 105K, that would be a short-term long opportunity.

But remember, the premise is that it must be a slow decline; if the bears suddenly increase their volume and crash the market, then don't touch it, because entering would be like sending yourself to the slaughter. The current market is a typical slow knife cutting meat; it doesn't rush to fall but also doesn't let you walk away easily. A little impulsiveness will lead to being reaped back.

My suggestion is that if there is a sharp drop tonight, close half of your shorts and keep some positions to sleep peacefully. If it rebounds, you can go long lightly, hoping for a small rebound over the weekend.

Because weekends are usually a buffer zone for the market, neither rising nor falling, just testing your patience. Impatient people in this rhythm are basically being beaten back and forth by both bulls and bears.

I remember I mentioned at the beginning of October that this round of market has entered a period of divergence. Last week, I further pointed out that the peak of this bull market has been sealed, and the long-term future will be the bears' world. To survive, one must go with the trend.

Next, there will be repeated pullbacks for washing positions; each pullback is a bait for bulls, and it will eventually have to drop again. You should know that the sky won't fall, but you can get knocked out…

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 109300

First Resistance Level: 108600

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 107400

Second Support Level: 106300

Currently, the most critical support is at 107.4K, which overlaps with the lower edge of the previous range and serves as the last line of defense for the bulls. As long as this line is held, there is still a chance for a rebound. Once 107.4K is lost, the short-term will accelerate downward, targeting 106.3K.

Conversely, 108.6K is a strong resistance area, where a bunch of long-term moving averages overlap, having been tested multiple times but never broken. If it can regain this level, it will depend on whether the trading volume has significantly increased; only with increased volume can there be a chance for a continued rebound.

As for the second resistance at 109.3K, it is a higher level of main selling pressure; without external positive news, it cannot be shaken. If it rebounds to that area, one must be cautious of being pushed back down.

If 107.4K is held, the bulls can still hold their breath; if it breaks, prepare for a drop to 106.3K. At that time, there may be a long lower shadow, and short-term players can look for a rebound there. But know that this is just a rebound, not a reversal. If the bears increase their volume and accelerate, don't force a catch.

10.23 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in batches in the 108600-109300 range, Target: 107400-106300

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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