"If he (Powell) is still in office when I take office, he will not stay." This statement from U.S. President Trump has stirred up a storm in global financial markets. The Federal Reserve, the "heart" of the global financial system, has always been viewed as the cornerstone of market stability due to the independence of its chairman. Now, this cornerstone has been shaken. This not only concerns the dollar and U.S. stocks but will also profoundly reshape the future landscape of the cryptocurrency market.
1. From Remote Criticism to Direct "Expulsion"
The incident originated from a clear statement made by Trump during an interview. He not only reiterated his intention to remove Powell but also criticized the presence of "hardliners" within the Federal Reserve and stated that current interest rates are too high, hindering economic development.
This uproar did not come out of nowhere. Looking back at Trump's first term, although he personally nominated Powell to succeed Yellen, during the subsequent rate hike cycle, Trump publicly criticized Powell multiple times on social media, calling him "crazy," "absurd," and "the biggest threat to the economy." His current statement is the ultimate explosion of a conflict that has lasted for years. As early as April 17 of this year, Trump posted three messages in quick succession, angrily denouncing Powell, with emotions escalating layer by layer. He first accused Powell of releasing a "messy" report on the 16th, stating, "He should have lowered interest rates like the European Central Bank long ago, but he always makes mistakes too late." The second message bluntly stated, "Powell should resign soon," and the third escalated to a threatening level: "If I want him to leave, he will leave soon. I am not satisfied with him."
Can the president arbitrarily fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve? There is significant controversy surrounding this in U.S. law and practice. According to the Federal Reserve Act, the terms of Federal Reserve governors are strictly protected, and the president can only remove them "for cause." Historically, no president has successfully dismissed a Federal Reserve chairman. Therefore, this uproar is more likely a high-intensity political pressure aimed at influencing the future direction of monetary policy. A former Federal Reserve official, who wished to remain anonymous, told Bloomberg, "This is an unprecedented public challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve, aimed at shaping a more compliant central bank."
2. Market's Immediate Reaction: A Mix of Panic, Opportunity, and Uncertainty
1. Traditional Markets: The Dollar and U.S. Treasuries Take the Hit
The dollar index fell by 0.5%, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar's future. Meanwhile, the volatility of the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond, the anchor for global asset pricing, significantly increased, indicating that the bond market is re-pricing for future policy uncertainty.
2. Cryptocurrency: Short-term Panic and Long-term Narrative Strengthening
Bitcoin experienced a brief and intense fluctuation after the news broke, initially dropping sharply to test support before quickly rebounding. This "V-shaped" movement perfectly illustrates the market's contradictory mindset: short-term panic selling coexists with long-term value buying.
On-chain data shows that within 24 hours of the news breaking, the net outflow of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges reached approximately 12,000 coins. This indicates that a large number of investors are choosing to transfer their assets to private wallets for accumulation rather than engaging in short-term trading.
3. The Cryptocurrency Market May Face a Turning Point
| Impact Dimension | Potential Opportunities | Potential Risks | |------------------|-----------------------|-----------------| | Price and Trading | Policy uncertainty may increase Bitcoin's "safe-haven" demand | Could lead to large-scale liquidation of high-leverage positions | | Capital and Liquidity | If the successor implements loose monetary policy, it will bring massive liquidity to the market | Damage to dollar credit may trigger a global liquidity crisis | | Industry and Regulation | The DeFi narrative of "not relying on banks" is strengthened, attracting new users and capital | The new chairman may take a tougher regulatory stance on the crypto industry, creating barriers for institutional access | | Market Sentiment | "FOMO" sentiment may spread, driving significant capital inflows and creating a bull market | Uncertainty may lead mainstream market sentiment to turn "wait-and-see," shrinking trading volume and causing stagnation |
4. How Will the Market Interpret This Storm?
Analysts and institutions in the market have shown significant divergence in their views, mainly divided into the following factions:
1. "Independence Doubt" Faction
"This is not just a personnel change; it shakes the foundation of the modern central banking system. If the Federal Reserve's decisions are politicized, global trust in dollar assets will be greatly diminished. The long-term value of Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value will be infinitely amplified in such an environment."
2. "Dovish Policy" Faction
"The market should focus on who the successor will be. A politically appointed dovish chairman means lower interest rates and a larger balance sheet. This will create the perfect macro environment that cryptocurrencies and all risk assets have long dreamed of."
3. "Realistic Constraints" Faction
"The market has overreacted. Under legal and institutional constraints, directly removing Powell is almost an impossible task. This is more likely a political show that will ultimately evolve into a long tug-of-war, with its actual impact on monetary policy potentially far less than the current market pricing."
5. Investor Action Guide
Potential risks to be wary of:
Extreme uncertainty in policy paths: The future interest rate path can no longer be predicted using traditional models, and the market may enter a prolonged "news-driven" state, with volatility becoming the norm.
Shift in regulatory stance risks: The Federal Reserve under Powell has maintained a relatively open research attitude towards cryptocurrencies. The stance of the new chairman is a complete unknown and could deal a fatal blow to crypto institutions seeking compliance.
Key dynamics to track in the future:
Official actions from the White House and responses from the Federal Reserve: Closely monitor whether the White House will formally submit a nomination for the new chairman to Congress, as well as the policy background of the nominee. Additionally, any public responses from Powell and other Federal Reserve officials will be key to assessing the severity of the situation.
Interest rate expectations and the dollar index's movements: Use tools to monitor market predictions for the probability of interest rate cuts and keep a close eye on the dollar index (DXY). The direction of the dollar index is a core indicator for determining whether capital will flow from the traditional system to the crypto market.
For the cryptocurrency world, this is both an unprecedented test and a historic opportunity to prove itself as an alternative to the traditional financial system. In the storm, the only certainty is uncertainty itself, and those who can navigate through cycles are always the investors who focus on long-term value and are well-prepared for risk management.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
