Good morning, crypto friends! ☀ I am Wang Yibo, and it's time for the die-hard fans to check in. 👍 Those who like this will definitely make a fortune this year! 🍗🍗🌹🌹 A new day brings the latest trends and trading opportunities in the crypto world. Let's break down the current macro environment and the trends of core cryptocurrencies to accurately grasp the market pulse.

Macro Environment: Interest Rate Cuts Confirmed, Crypto Market Welcomes New Opportunities

On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.1%, the S&P 500 up 1.07%, and the Nasdaq up 1.37%, injecting moderate warmth into the risk asset market. The most notable macro focus is the Federal Reserve's policy direction. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has reached 99.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 0.6%. Additionally, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December has also reached 98.6%, confirming that the rate cut cycle is set to begin.

Although the U.S. Senate's 11th vote on the funding bill has not yet passed, and the government remains in a "shutdown" state, the previously heated Trump tariff controversy has gradually calmed down. However, these disruptive factors have been gradually digested by the market. As the end of the month approaches, a series of key economic and financial data will be released, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on October 28-29, leading the market into a data and policy-intensive window period.

It is worth noting that the current favorable conditions from the interest rate cuts have already been partially reflected in asset prices. Whether the subsequent market can continue to strengthen largely depends on whether external disturbances decrease. If no unexpected risk events occur in the short term, the crypto market is expected to break free from its oscillating pattern and experience a significant upward trend, significantly increasing the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a new historical high. However, caution is also needed, as the future policy path of the Federal Reserve remains uncertain. Blindly chasing highs is not advisable; controlling positions and effectively hedging risks are key to seizing opportunities.

Bitcoin: Range-Bound Consolidation, Bullish Trend Gradually Emerging

From the intraday trend, Bitcoin retraced to a low of 107389 in the morning before rising again, testing the resistance level around 111697. After being pressured, it slowly declined, finding support near 109800 in the evening and rebounding again. After the previous major market movement, the market has formed clear short-term support and resistance zones, and the price is currently in a phase of oscillation and consolidation.

On the technical front, the price has reached the upper area of the 4-hour central axis, which also constitutes a traditional pressure point. To successfully break through this key range, bulls need to continue consolidating and maintain the current upward oscillation pattern. If there is a short-term pullback under pressure, it is likely to continue the triangular oscillation trend. After a rebound in the early morning, a slight pullback occurred, which is a typical adjustment phase. Currently, the price is operating near the upper Bollinger Band along two major moving averages, and the short-term trend clearly favors the bulls. In terms of operations, it is recommended to follow the principle of trading with the trend, adopting a bullish approach while closely monitoring the breakthrough of key resistance levels.

Ethereum: Strong Divergence Signals, Ample Rebound Momentum

Ethereum also performed well yesterday, starting a rebound from a low of 3907, reaching a high of 4082. In the afternoon, it consolidated slightly at a high level, and after retracing to the support level of 3920 in the evening, it rebounded again, demonstrating strong resilience.

On the 4-hour level, the price hovers near the upper Bollinger Band, with the K-line continuously guiding the market upward. The expanding shape of the three Bollinger Bands is strengthening, and a normal pullback under pressure at the upper band is expected. If this key point can be broken, the upward trend will further continue. The MACD indicator shows a strong bottom divergence pattern, which typically indicates a potential upward reversal at low prices. There is ample rebound momentum in the short term, and the upward movement of both the fast and slow tracks continues to strengthen, providing technical support for the bulls. On the hourly level, the price is consolidating in the upper Bollinger Band area, quickly rebounding after probing the middle track in the evening, highlighting the strong support of the middle track and weakening the bearish force, further solidifying the basis for subsequent rebounds. In terms of operational layout, one can position long orders around the previous middle track pressure point to seize trading opportunities in the rebound market.

A new trading day has begun, with the macro favorable support and technical bullish signals resonating, the crypto market is welcoming a rare layout window. However, the crypto world is highly volatile, with risks and opportunities coexisting. It is recommended that all crypto friends continue to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's subsequent actions and key data releases, keeping up with market dynamics while adhering to risk control principles. Follow Yibo for the latest market interpretations and operational strategies, and let’s seize certain opportunities amid the volatility and move forward steadily! 🚀

=================================

💎

💎

==================================

If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the charts, don’t know when to enter the market, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increase positions, get stuck while trying to catch the bottom, can’t hold onto profits, miss out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeatedly facing defeats. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving forward steadily with you in the market.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。