With 10 days to go until the countdown to October 2025, the global financial market is entering a critical information-intensive period. U.S. economic data is struggling due to the government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on October 28-29 is approaching. Amidst multiple uncertainties, the cryptocurrency market has broken the silence first, injecting a strong dose of confidence into investors caught in the bull-bear dilemma with an unexpectedly strong rebound. Bitcoin has successfully crossed the $110,000 mark, and Ethereum has surpassed the $4,000 threshold. The driving logic behind this rebound and its future trends are worth in-depth analysis by every market participant.
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After the market opened this week, the strong pattern in the crypto market continued, with gains exceeding market expectations. As the core market indicator, Bitcoin has seen an overall increase of over 4,000 points since the beginning of the week, exhibiting a strong characteristic of "pullback followed by surge." After a slight dip to around 107,389 in the morning, bullish forces quickly regrouped and launched another upward assault, reaching a high of 111,642, continuously refreshing recent high points. Ethereum's performance is equally impressive, with a single coin increase of nearly 200 points today, showing a high correlation with Bitcoin: after completing a low support test at around 3,907 in the morning, bulls immediately launched a strong counterattack, currently reaching a high of 4,082, together forming a strong rebound pattern in the market.
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From the perspective of the core driving logic of the market, the current surge is not coincidental but a result of the resonance between policy expectations and technical patterns. Although the core contradiction in the global financial market focuses on the uncertainty of U.S. economic policy, the crypto market has seized the key breakthrough of "policy certainty"—the market's expectation probability for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the October meeting has reached 99%. This strong expectation of liquidity easing has become the core driving force for cryptocurrencies to shake off previous correction pressures, effectively offsetting the negative impact of delayed U.S. economic data disclosure. The technical dimension also provides clear support: after a period of consolidation and energy accumulation, the two major cryptocurrencies have broken out of their consolidation ranges, showing a strong breakout trend. The four-hour chart indicates that bulls still possess strong momentum, with the Bollinger Bands opening and expanding upward, and the short-term hourly chart displaying a sustained strong characteristic, providing a solid structural foundation for the continuation of the rebound trend.
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In the face of this strong rebound, many investors are caught in the dilemma of "bull-bear attribute judgment" and "when will the altcoin season begin." In fact, the volatility of the crypto market has never been a simple bull-bear opposition but rather a result of multiple factors such as policy direction, capital flow, and market sentiment working together. Instead of getting lost in vague bull-bear definitions, it is better to focus on actionable core variables—in the current critical information window, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and subsequent policy guidance, as well as the concentrated release of economic data after the U.S. shutdown, could all become key nodes to ignite the market. Accurately interpreting this information is the core key to grasping the market situation.
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Regarding the "altcoin season" issue that investors are particularly concerned about, historical patterns have provided clear guidance: the onset of altcoin trends often depends on mainstream coins stabilizing at key price levels. When Bitcoin and Ethereum form a stable upward trend, market funds will gradually spread to promising altcoins. From the current market performance, Bitcoin stabilizing at $110,000 and Ethereum breaking the $4,000 key level has become a given, and some altcoins with actual value support have quietly begun to strengthen, indicating that the altcoin season is indeed brewing. Of course, the market still needs to be cautious of short-term risks: although the four-hour level shows sufficient momentum, there are already signs of overbought conditions after continuous increases, and a short-term phase of correction may be needed. However, considering the structural patterns and policy expectations, the correction is more likely to become an opportunity for bulls to re-enter rather than a signal of trend reversal.
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In summary, the current crypto market is in a dual favorable phase of "policy window + technical strength," and the continuation of the rebound trend is still worth looking forward to. For operational strategies, the short term can continue to follow the core logic of "continuation of the rebound trend," with "buying on dips" as the main response strategy. However, it is more critical to clarify the key points for subsequent layout: first, closely monitor the Federal Reserve's October interest rate decision and policy guidance, as this is the core variable determining the height of the rebound; second, pay attention to the release of U.S. economic data, as its performance may influence subsequent policy directions; third, focus on value targets in asset selection, avoiding purely speculative hype, especially paying attention to the opportunities in altcoins brought by the spread of funds after the stabilization of mainstream coins. Opportunities often lie in information gaps and execution power; by following the YiBo live broadcast room, you can get core news interpretations, trend logic breakdowns, and potential target explorations in real-time, helping you accurately seize market opportunities in this wave of trends.
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