⚡️Key Focus | 2025: Predicted Year of Market Explosion, Which Projects Have the Most Potential?
Prediction markets, this is a track that @VitalikButerin and @cz_binance have been focusing on at CUE!
This year shows a clear trend of explosion: trading volume has surpassed $25 billion, with a year-on-year increase of over 10 times.
From the U.S. elections to Bitcoin's new highs, from sports events to inflation data, all uncertainties can be traded, priced, and arbitraged.
The long-term logic is extremely clear: when information is priced, probabilities become assets.
1⃣ Institutional Entry, Officially Establishing Industry Position
In 2025, prediction markets will finally be recognized by mainstream capital, with leading institutions entering the layout: ICE, Coinbase Ventures, Paradigm.
Hedge funds are also using prediction markets to hedge against macro risks such as GDP and inflation, while regulators have clearly classified them as "non-securities event contracts," cleaning up the gray area and formally establishing the industry's position.
2⃣ Leading Structure Basically Established
Polymarket: The leading decentralized prediction market, with ICE (the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange) investing $2 billion, valuing it at $9 billion, with a cumulative trading volume of $18.4 billion. A token $POLY is about to be launched, expected to be the next hot topic, with airdrop expectations.
Kalshi: Secured full licensing from the CFTC, holding 66% market share, with weekly trading volume exceeding $500 million. A regulated exchange focusing on macro and financial events, already used as a legitimate derivative by traditional funds. KYC is required.
Gnosis (GNO): Provider of underlying infrastructure and conditional token frameworks, considered the "siphon" of the prediction track, with a clear logic of stable growth.
3⃣ Core Focus List
Limitless: A fast prediction market platform native to the Base chain, focusing on high-frequency, short-term event predictions, suitable for active traders, with trading volume exceeding $500 million. Backed by Coinbase Ventures, it raised $200 million in oversubscription and is currently quite popular.
Augur (REP): An Ethereum OG project, rebooting the next generation of decentralized oracles. With a market cap of only tens of millions, it has retro value characteristics.
Drift: A representative of Solana and the event prediction track, integrating Perp DEX + event prediction into a composite model, with low market cap, fast growth, and active tasks, combining liquidity mining and point incentives, making it a key area for short-term arbitrage and airdrops this year.
4⃣ Other Potential Prediction Projects Not Yet Launched
Opinion: Continuous prediction market + dynamic opinion market + AI oracle. Led by YZi Labs, raised $5 million, with a clear first-mover advantage on BSC.
Clearing: Developed by the former Polymarket team, focusing on decentralization + compliance, a composite of Polymarket + Kalshi. Raised $15 million, with a strong background.
Melee: Raised $3.5 million, creating a "viral market," needs to observe market adaptability.
Noise: The first platform to treat "attention" as a tradable asset within the MegaETH ecosystem (which has received substantial funding).
⭐️If you want to engage in prediction markets now, you can follow these three points:
Choose good events to gamble on, such as elections, macro data, AI events, and other short-term high-heat themes.
You can use odds differences for arbitrage, such as between Polymarket and Kalshi, where some events may have a 1-5% risk-free space.
Some emerging platforms offer good points for tasks, allowing you to participate with minimal funds.
Prediction markets are unafraid of bull and bear markets; gamblers will always exist, and that is its narrative charm.
Here’s a table that you can interact with!
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