Yesterday, when we were around 110,000, we mentioned that many in the market believed this was forming a double bottom, while we firmly believed it was not a double bottom and that there was still a possibility of further decline. Today, we indeed saw the price continue to drop, and once again, we guessed correctly. Today, as we observed the market again, we found signs of a downward trend developing. Whether it can form or not still needs to be verified by the market in the coming days. The several short positions we took have also been profitable.
From the MACD perspective, the energy bars continue to move downwards and have reached the lowest point since the recent market trend. The fast line and slow line are also pressing down, making it impossible to see a stop in the decline under these circumstances.
From the CCI perspective, after four consecutive days of decline, the CCI has moved far away from the zero line, making it difficult to return to the zero line in the short term. This is not the time to be bullish.
From the OBV perspective, with four consecutive days of decline, the OBV has shown a significant drop, and the slow line has also turned downwards. A downward trend is gradually forming, so technically, there is no way to see an upward movement here.
From the KDJ perspective, it broke below 50 in the past two days, so the next step should be to test 20. As for whether it can reach 20, we will reassess the market when it approaches that level to see if it will continue to decline or stop declining.
From the MFI and RSI perspectives, both indicators are in a weak zone, and their direction is moving downwards, indicating a clear bearish trend, so we cannot be bullish here.
From the moving averages perspective, several moving averages are starting to turn downwards, so we believe there are signs of a downward trend developing.
From the Bollinger Bands perspective, when we were analyzing yesterday, the Bollinger Bands were still in a contracting phase, but today, upon further inspection, the bands have actually opened up. It opened wide without going through a narrow phase, which is quite rare historically. This could either be a false breakdown or a downward trend. Everyone should pay attention to the closing situation over the next two days. If both days close with bearish candles, the likelihood of a downward trend increases. If it is a downward trend, we should see if the rebound can break the BBI; if it does not break the BBI, we can confidently hold short positions.
In summary: Several indicators show a downward trend, so we believe there are signs of a downward trend developing. Whether it can form or not still needs to be verified by the market in the coming days. The first target for the bears is not to rise above 107,500, the second target is not to rise above 106,000, and the third target is to close below 105,000. Resistance is seen at 107,500-109,000, and support is seen at 105,000-101,500.
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