Since October 9, approximately 51,000 bitcoins have been gradually transferred from miner wallets to exchanges, with a value of about $5.6 billion. The reduction in earnings post-halving has forced miners to cash out, significantly increasing market liquidity pressure, and bitcoin subsequently fell below the $110,000 support level, reaching a low of $103,470 at the time of writing, down 6.3% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum also fell below $3,800, hitting a low of $3,671, down about 8.04%.
In contrast to bitcoin, gold has surged nearly 2.5% during the day, driven by multiple positive catalysts, with an annual cumulative increase of over 54%. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and U.S.-China trade tensions have compounded geopolitical risks. At the same time, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once in October and once in December due to a cooling labor market. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is as high as 65%. If this expectation materializes, it will provide stronger support for the performance of risk assets like bitcoin and gold before the year ends.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
Without further ado, based on the indicators in the bitcoin four-hour chart, the current bitcoin price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Band is widening, indicating that the market is in a strong downtrend phase. Although a technical rebound may occur in the short term, the overall trend remains bearish. The mid-band around $110,000 has become a key resistance level; if the rebound cannot break through this position, the bearish trend will continue.
From the MACD indicator perspective, the DIF line is significantly below the DEA line, with the gap between the two widening, and the MACD green histogram continues to grow, indicating that bearish momentum is still increasing. There are currently no signs of a reversal, and the downtrend has not yet ended. A stabilization or rebound may only occur when the green histogram shortens and the DIF line begins to approach the DEA line.
The KDJ indicator shows K value at 22, D value at 21, and J value at 24, which is in the oversold area, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may weaken, making it easier to see a rebound or sideways consolidation. If the KDJ forms a golden cross, it can serve as a signal for a short-term rebound.
The current price is below the Fibonacci retracement line of approximately 23.6% (107,777), meaning bitcoin has fallen below the first key support area, with the next support around 0% (102,000), which will become a critical defensive level; if the price rebounds, the first resistance level is at 23.6% (107,800), followed by 38.2% (111,400). If it cannot quickly recover above 107,800, it may continue to test the support around 102,000.
In summary, bitcoin is currently in a short-term oversold state within a mid-term downtrend. A technical rebound may occur in the short term, with target resistance in the 107,800-111,400 range; in the mid-term, if the MACD continues to expand bearish momentum and cannot break through the mid-band, it may further decline. 102,000 is a key defensive level; if it falls below this, it will open up new downward space.
Based on the above, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
In the short term, focus on the KDJ golden cross signal, and if the price returns near the mid-Bollinger Band, consider going long in the short term;
In the mid-term, if the rebound is blocked at 107,800 or 111,400, consider positioning for short trades. Overall, remain cautious and pay attention to risk control.
Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the right mindset and trend; teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. The suggestion is to earn for a moment, but learning the mindset will help you earn for a lifetime!
Writing time: (2025-10-17, 20:10)
(Written by - Master Says Coin) Disclaimer: There may be delays in online publication; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; proceed with caution!
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