Master Discusses Hot Topics:
Last night in the US stock market was the same as usual; those that should be halted are still halted, and those that should be arguing are still arguing. On the surface, there was a slight drop of a few points, but in reality, there was no substantial change. The real volatility is still in the crypto market, especially in the past two days where many altcoins have been hyped up by MEME.
FOMO sentiment is rising across the board, with the market brainwashing everyone about which coin is the next legend. The result? A bunch of people got carried away, selling off their originally stable positions to play with those worthless coins.
To put it simply, the crypto market is a mirror reflecting human nature; those who are anxious and restless will be harvested. No matter how much you earn, once emotions get out of control, everything goes to zero. Those who survive are the ones who can endure, wait, and remain steady.
As everyone knows, my previous habit was to rarely discuss altcoins, whether it's the recent MEME or BNB. However, BNB dropped harder than Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday, which is likely smart money pulling out. Those who should leave have converted to USDT, and the remaining assets naturally depreciate. I've seen this situation during the last round of Chuanzi coin.
On the US stock market side, there hasn't been a systemic issue structurally; it's mainly the halt and external factors causing disturbances. In other words, the short-term market trend is likely to be a range-bound market. There won't be any directional opportunities until the halt is lifted or new news comes out.
Returning to the market, the main reason for the recent pullback in Bitcoin and Ethereum is quite clear to everyone. The US is in a halt, and non-farm payrolls are delayed. Although the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29 is almost a certainty (98.5% probability), the market will remain uneasy until the non-farm data is released.
Additionally, there will be another interest rate cut in December, after which it is expected to enter a pause period. Moreover, Japan is also raising interest rates, and the signals of tightening global liquidity are becoming increasingly evident.
Looking at Bitcoin's price action, the current structure is still relatively healthy. The momentum is strong during the uptrend, while the pullback is weak, indicating that the bulls still have confidence. The surge on September 28 was indeed strong, and the adjustment since October 7 has been slow and gentle, which is a typical strong pullback rhythm.
Today's key point is the strength of the rebound. If it can stabilize and rise above 122.6K to 123.5K, there is still a chance for continued upward movement. However, if the rebound is weak, it will have to drop further, possibly testing the range of 120.8K to 119.6K again.
If it really breaks down, then testing the lower range of 118–117.6 is inevitable. Last night's pullback hit near the 3-day EMA5, and the MACD did not show a significant decline in momentum, indicating that the hidden bulls are still present. Therefore, the area around 119.5K is likely the low point for this week, at most dipping to 118.8K.
If it breaks below 118K, then this wave of upward movement will be declared over, and the market will enter a medium-term downtrend. So in the short term, don't be misled by a healthy pullback; if there is no bottoming structure here, it would be naive to expect a V-shaped reversal, and it will only continue to oscillate downward.
Ethereum is relatively stable. Overall, it is in a high-level box range. This resembles the rhythm before previous launches, where it first breaks the box and then pulls back before rising again. From the perspective of momentum and structure, Ethereum still leans bullish.
3815 is likely just the starting point of this trend, and the current decline is merely correcting the rise from 3815 to 4755. The key support is at 4175, and below that is the round number. As long as these levels hold, Ethereum remains strong yet stable!
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Levels Reference:
Second Resistance Level: 123500
First Resistance Level: 122600
Support Levels Reference:
First Support Level: 120800
Second Support Level: 119600
Bitcoin still hasn't managed to make a decent rebound after reaching new highs, and signs of a diamond top are beginning to appear in the high-level area on the 4-hour chart.
Once this pattern is established, it often indicates a gradual downward trend reversal.
As long as the decline is accompanied by increased volume, this pattern is confirmed. Conversely, if it can strongly break through the 20MA on the 4-hour chart, there is a chance to break this downward pattern.
The closing price of 119.6K last night remains a key support level, which is the last line of defense for the bulls. As long as it doesn't drop below 120.8K, there is still hope for a short-term rebound.
At the same time, pay attention to the direction of the 60MA on the 4-hour chart, which coincides with 120.8K and serves as an observation point for the rebound. Until it breaks the downward trend line, this market should be viewed as a continuation of the downtrend.
The first resistance at 122.6K is a strong pressure area today. If the volume doesn't keep up when it reaches this level, it will likely just be a rebound followed by a drop. This should be monitored alongside the downward trend line, as it is a key turning point.
The second resistance at 123.5K, if it can break through 122.6K with volume, there is hope for another upward wave. However, the current market uncertainty is too high, and the chances of making new highs are slim, making it more likely to evolve into a corrective market.
The first support at 120.8K, if it holds, can provide an opportunity for a short-term rebound. However, this position is not a bottom; it can only be seen as a short-term opportunity, and the strength of the 60MA support should also be monitored.
The second support at 119.6K, if it breaks, means the previous low has been lost, and an N-shaped decline will be opened, so be wary of further deep drops and don't hold on stubbornly.
Currently, the overall situation is still a box range oscillation; if it rebounds, you can take a short-term opportunity. When it reaches the downward trend line and the 20MA resistance area, watch the trading volume; if there is no volume, it is a false rebound, and you need to immediately switch to a short position.
10.10 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 118800-119600. Target: 120800-122600
Short Entry Reference: Sell in batches in the range of 122600-123500. Target: 120800-119600
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot their long positions, and tomorrow they summarize their short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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