Although many friends think today's homework is easy, just a rise and that's it, I still feel that today's homework is not easy to write. This is mainly because of the drop in the US stock market at one o'clock in the morning, coinciding with the speech of the White House spokesperson. The main content was about the government shutdown. Although the market predicted that the shutdown could last a long time and that it might lead to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, there are also concerns about the negative impact of a prolonged shutdown on the market.

Of course, my speculation may not be correct. We should have a clearer idea by Monday or Tuesday, as the latest information indicates that the Senate will be in recess until 3 PM Eastern Time on Monday, which is 3 AM Beijing Time on Tuesday, almost coinciding with the closing of the US stock market. Whether the new week's shutdown will negatively impact the market should be clearer then. After all, the shutdown during the Trump era from 2018 to 2019 caused a loss of $11 billion to the US over 35 days.

Tomorrow is the weekend, and my first reaction is that the problem won't be significant. However, if there is a noticeable drop, I will close out the remaining 20% of my contract positions, while keeping my spot positions unchanged. Overall, I still feel that we are not at the main speculative phase yet, but in the short term, it mainly depends on how the market reacts to the shutdown.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate continues to increase. Although it is still mainly short-term investors, with such a rise in turnover rate, I wonder if the purchasing power can fully support it. Today's turnover rate has already reached the highest level in recent times, and it is evident that as we approach new highs, short-term investors are starting to feel a sense of fear of heights.

Moreover, from the URPD data, the distribution below $120,000 was relatively even and stable, but once $BTC exceeded $120,000, there was a sharp stratification of chips, indicating that investors are somewhat hesitant about prices above $120,000.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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