Master Discusses Hot Topics:
I really can't understand this melodrama from the Americans right now. The government is shut down, and Warren jumps out to shout that the Labor Department's data has long been compiled and must be released on time. Her underlying message is simple: if the data isn't released, the Federal Reserve won't be able to decide how to handle interest rates in October.
In other words, this data is the market's reassurance. But the problem is, the market has no confidence at all. Just look at the CME swap rates; yesterday, someone was fantasizing about a 50 basis point cut in October, and today it immediately turned around.
The probability of a rate cut has returned to 97.3%, and there's even a 2.7% chance of no cut. What does this indicate? It shows that the money market has started to hesitate, and confidence is beginning to waver. Coupled with the uncertainty of the government shutdown, the entire macro environment has begun to change rapidly.
The issue is that Bitcoin is still surging against the trend, which makes me feel a bit uneasy. You would think that a shutdown would be a major negative, but it has been offset by the National Day holiday and a bunch of economic uncertainties.
In the short term, it looks quite optimistic, but I believe this trend is digging a pit in the long run. Retail investors are anxious, and project teams are even more anxious. If Bitcoin consolidates at a high level now, while altcoins are still dancing around, I can only say, damn, this is probably the project teams dumping their tokens like crazy.
They are using market sentiment to throw the chips to the lucky audience to take over. Many project teams are not optimistic about the next few months or even a year; this current market is their lifeline, and they will cash out whenever they can.
Back to the market, Bitcoin now looks like it wants to break new highs. But to be honest, I don't dare to chase it, especially with the non-farm payrolls tonight and the shutdown issue next week.
These two uncertainties are significant. If the non-farm payrolls are not released, the Federal Reserve will have no reference indicators. If they are released, whether the data is good or bad can disrupt the market. Plus, whether the market will continue to speculate on the favorable expectations of rate cuts due to the shutdown next week is all uncertain.
Looking back from July to now, Bitcoin has broken through 120K three times, and all three were false breaks. On July 14, August 11, and August 14, as of the time I am writing this analysis, it peaked at 120.9K.
If it drops back below 120K tonight, that will be the fourth false break. If that happens, I will directly look for a pullback to 115K. Only if it closes above 120K for two consecutive daily candles will I acknowledge that it has truly stabilized.
At that point, it might hover above 120K for two to three weeks, moving into a high-level oscillation market like that of October to November 2024. The most incredible low-probability scenario would be a direct surge past 125K into a main upward wave, but to be honest, that is a very low probability.
From an emotional perspective, 118K is the critical point for the bears. Once it breaks down, the shorts will not only be deeply trapped but will also switch to going long, which means institutions will shift from pulling up to distributing. Pay attention; this is the fatal point.
The bear's defense line has been raised to 118K. If this level holds on a retest, it will become new support. Looking upward, the range from 122.5K to 126.5K is likely where the high point of this cycle lies.
My judgment is this: around the non-farm payrolls tonight, Bitcoin will likely first retest near 118K to trick you into getting in, then surge to the range of 124.5K to 126.5K. Finally, it will consolidate at a high level to cash out, completing this round of upward movement. Understand that I am talking about a cycle, not an entire bull market.
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Level Reference:
Second Resistance Level: 122000
First Resistance Level: 120500
Support Level Reference:
First Support Level: 119300
Second Support Level: 118300
From a short-term 1-hour perspective, Bitcoin pulled back 1K after touching 121K yesterday, which is essentially a healthy pullback. After such a rise, not pulling back would be abnormal.
The 20-day moving average on the 1-hour chart is still trending upward, and the short-term trend hasn't broken. Just follow the pullback and go long. This moving average itself is an emotional line; a slight dip below it is not a big deal, so we can directly focus on the support zone from 118.3K to 119.3K; if it breaks, we will talk then.
To continue pushing upward, it must first break through the short-term downtrend line. After the pullback from the 121K high, the key is that the pullback shouldn't be too deep; it’s best to quickly recover to 120.5K, so the bulls can have confidence.
As long as Bitcoin doesn't break below 118.3K to 119.3K, the rebound logic still holds. Right now, it's just a corrective action; the higher the low points can be raised, the greater the probability of pushing towards 121K.
The first resistance at 120.5K can hold the 20MA and break the downtrend line, allowing it to test 121K again. The second resistance at 122K, if 121K is broken, could lead to a short-term surge, with 122K being the short-term target.
The first support at 119.3K is a key buying zone; placing orders in batches here is reasonable. The second support at 118.3K must not be easily broken; if it breaks, it could trigger a wave of panic selling, grinding on people's nerves.
Today's thought: The trend is strong; don't go against the trend and force a short. Just wait for the pullback; buying low during the pullback is the right approach. Don't impulsively chase highs; if you get trapped, there’s a high probability that there will be news tonight that will hit hard.
10.3 Master’s Band Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 118300-119300; Target: 120500-122000
Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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