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💎 Market Overview: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Risk Asset Enthusiasm 💎
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The last quarter of 2025 kicks off with strong signals! The three major U.S. stock indices slightly rose, establishing an optimistic tone, while the "little non-farm" data showed the largest decline since March 2023, completely igniting market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. — CME's "FedWatch" indicates a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut in December has soared to 89.0%.
Under expectations of liquidity easing, asset prices are celebrating: gold briefly broke through the $3900 mark, and the crypto market staged a nighttime raid. Notably, whales that previously sold off large amounts of Bitcoin and Ethereum have quietly returned, and this influx of funds combined with the interest rate cut cycle is laying a crucial foundation for Q4 market trends. However, it should be noted that market focus has subtly shifted, with newly listed coins and those expected to have spot ETF approvals becoming new favorites for funds. These two directions need to be closely monitored.
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💎 Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Breaks Strongly, Ethereum Consolidates 💎
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Bitcoin: Bullish Pattern Established, Targeting Higher Levels
Yesterday's performance was a textbook-level strong rebound: after probing a low of $112,600, it stabilized and rose, peaking at $114,600 in the early morning and then breaking through the key level of $118,457 in the afternoon. From a four-hour technical perspective, bullish signals are very clear:
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Bollinger Bands: The opening continues to expand, with prices stabilizing above the upper band, the middle band moving up to around $114,000 forming strong support, and the distance between the lower band and the current price widening, fully opening the upward channel;
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MACD Indicator: DIF and DEA maintain a high-level golden cross, with red energy bars continuously expanding, showing no signs of a decline in bullish momentum.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on long positions, relying on the support of the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with short-term attention on the breakout strength of the $120,000 round number. If it stabilizes, a new round of wave trading may begin.
Ethereum: Linked Rebound Faces Resistance, Watch for Continued Rise After Consolidation
Ethereum, which is strongly linked to Bitcoin, experienced a "first suppression then rise" washout yesterday: after reaching a high of $4200 in the morning, it faced pressure and fell back to a low of $4120, then rebounded to $4343 in the evening as market sentiment warmed, currently in a high-level consolidation phase.
This adjustment wave is a digestion of profit-taking after the rise. On-chain data shows that whales are still continuously increasing their holdings of Ether — a previously dormant whale with a hundred billion in assets sold Bitcoin and then heavily bought Ether, currently holding over $180 million in spot and perpetual contract long positions. The overall trend remains bullish, with a key focus on the $4250 support level. If this position holds, it is expected to move towards the target range of $4600-$5200.
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💎 Hot Focus: Where Are the Core Opportunities in Q4? 💎
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- Sector Rotation Opportunities Under the Interest Rate Cut Cycle
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both predict that the Federal Reserve will implement three interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, and historical data shows that cryptocurrencies often experience valuation recovery during monetary easing periods. The current market has shown characteristics of sector rotation: besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, coins like Solana have surged recently, with a 7-day increase of over 20%. Institutions like Galaxy Digital have invested $486 million to increase their holdings, making these newly listed coins backed by institutional funds worthy of close attention.
- Potential Explosive Points in the ETF Track
The "Truth Social Bitcoin ETF" submitted by Trump Media Group is awaiting SEC approval and is expected to be listed in early 2026. More importantly, institutions like REX Financial have launched "staking-based crypto funds" that have entered the SEC review stage. These products can generate returns through staking Ethereum and Solana, and if approved, will open new market space, potentially leading to a revaluation of related ecosystem coins.
- Stablecoin Opportunities Brought by Regulatory Compliance
The application window for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong has opened, with 44 brokerages completing license upgrades in preparation for business. At the same time, Tether has launched the USAT stablecoin under the U.S. regulatory framework and appointed a former White House crypto advisor to lead its U.S. operations. As the "infrastructure" of the crypto market, stablecoins will benefit long-term from the push for compliance, positively impacting their associated ecosystem coins.
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💎 Operation Reminders and Risk Warnings 💎
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Strategy Suggestions: Focus on long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term, mid-term layout in newly listed coins heavily held by institutions like Solana, and long-term tracking of ETF-related ecosystem coins;
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Risk Warning: The implementation of Federal Reserve policies may trigger a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" market (after the September rate cut, there was a $1.7 billion long liquidation), so profit-taking and stop-loss measures should be set;
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Real-time Tracking: Whale movements and SEC approval progress will affect short-term trends, so pay attention to Yibo for real-time updates.
Like and follow to stay on track, let's seize the Q4 market together! 🚀
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If you are feeling lost — not understanding technology, unable to read charts, unsure when to enter the market, not knowing how to set stop losses, not understanding profit-taking, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck at the bottom, unable to hold profits, missing market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent operations, it's better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.
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