Master Discusses Hot Topics:
Continuing from yesterday's analysis, Old Bao just finished repeating the dovish nonsense, and the market hasn't digested it yet. As a result, Finance Minister Besant immediately jumped out to call for a 100 to 150 basis point cut, causing a direct rebound in Bitcoin in the early morning.
In simple terms, this is a typical emotional rebound, not a trend at all. Whether it can truly reverse the trend will depend on the final guidance from the FOMC at the end of October.
Besant's dissatisfaction is quite direct; Old Bao's hesitant demeanor completely failed to indicate a significant rate cut by the end of the year, and the market is understandably anxious. The current fluctuations in Bitcoin are essentially bets on how fast and aggressive future rate cuts will be.
However, last night's U.S. stocks were still a mess, but Bitcoin did manage to test the bottom and rebound a bit. Many people like to compare U.S. stocks with Bitcoin, but in reality, Bitcoin's decline often happens a step ahead, especially on weekends, almost like a weather forecast for U.S. stocks.
Nevertheless, there hasn't been a systemic panic in market sentiment, which is good news. The core PCE data on Friday is key; if this data is below or equal to expectations, it could boost the market. But if it's above expectations, oh boy, we might have to go through another round of turmoil.
Also, don't forget that the curse of good news turning into bad news is still in play. A small rate cut won't solve anything; a bull market's return will have to wait until rates are truly slashed. Until then, the market will continue to test the bottom and oscillate.
Back to the market, in the short term, Bitcoin seems to have successfully tested the bottom. Last night, it finally produced a decent volume rebound, even breaking through the middle band of the four-hour Bollinger Bands, directly hitting the daily resistance level of 114K.
Ethereum and some altcoins appear to be more stable, unlike Bitcoin, which has been testing lower lows, making people anxious. Ethereum is showing a double bottom with horizontal support, and the rebound volume is average, clearly reluctant to follow Bitcoin into new lows.
But to be honest, there isn't much action in the overall market right now. It hit 114K and then retraced, starting to pull back again, clearly a choppy market. In the short term, I will also keep an eye on 111.6K, as there might be another wave of long liquidation here.
As for Ethereum, the spot ETF data is also a mess. Net inflow is zero, which is quite embarrassing. Although net outflow is similar to Bitcoin, purchasing power is clearly weak. At least Bitcoin still has some resilience, with not much selling pressure, while Ethereum has no presence at all.
The so-called strategic reserves that were previously hyped are no longer mentioned, and related stocks are all showing poor performance. In the short term, unless Ethereum can suddenly boost purchasing power, it will be very difficult to strengthen.
On the hourly level, it’s just low-level oscillation, looking lifeless, and it will only dare to move once Bitcoin stabilizes. Resistance is at 4360, support is at 4000, and I will first look at 3880 as the key support. Don’t be fooled by Ethereum’s small level trying to break the 30-minute resistance nine times in a row, only to fail each time, and it even poked three times.
Poking means liquidation and institutional bottom-fishing, but there is clearly a large amount of trapped positions above 4200, and every attempt to break through will encounter selling pressure from those looking to exit. With this kind of trend, it’s highly likely to continue sideways and gradually decline, annoying retail investors.
Ultimately, this market is just dragging on, trying to test who has patience. If 4000 really breaks, don’t hesitate, immediately protect your position, or you’ll just have to wait to be cut down…
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Level Reference:
Second Resistance Level: 114300
First Resistance Level: 113300
Support Level Reference:
First Support Level: 112400
Second Support Level: 111600
From the four-hour perspective, Bitcoin failed to stabilize above 113K yesterday, being pressed by the long-term moving averages and oscillating within a range. The short-term downward trend line is still pressing down, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing. It’s just a waiting game, with no clear direction.
Yesterday it bounced off the support at 112.4K, and now it’s testing 113K again. But the Bollinger Bands are closing in tightly, so a trending market won’t come for now; it will continue to play in a range.
The 4-hour 120MA and 60MA are forming a death cross, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement, still dominated by a downward trend. If it can slowly break through the downward trend line while the Bollinger Bands open up, then there might be a decent rebound.
It is currently trying to stabilize at the 4-hour 200MA; if the lower shadow of the candlestick holds, it indicates that there are buyers stepping in below, and a short-term rebound can still be expected. The 112~112.4K area is the key support zone; if this level cannot hold, then forget about any trend reversal.
The first resistance at 113.3K is the previous high, and it must break through again to have a chance for a rebound and break the short-term downward trend. The second resistance at 114.3K, even if it breaks the first resistance, there are still the 120MA, 60MA, and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands pressing down; without new positive news, it won’t move.
The first support at 112.4K is the most critical short-term level; if it holds, it can still oscillate. If it breaks, it could easily trigger panic selling, leading to a rapid decline.
The second support at 111.6K is where the last drop stopped. If 112K cannot hold, be careful of further declines; if the lower band of the Bollinger Bands cannot hold, it is highly likely to lead to a stair-step decline.
Today’s market is restricted within a small range, with little room for movement. Don’t think about holding long positions; when it reaches the point to take profits, you need to withdraw in time.
9.25 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
Short Entry Reference: Short in the 113300-114300 range in batches, Target: 112400-111600
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
This content is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat: Coin Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, liquidation, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!
Warm reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen on the official account (as shown above), and any other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments are unrelated to the author!! Please be cautious in distinguishing authenticity, thank you for reading.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
