🩸 Today, the market plummeted without warning, and a general sense of pessimism has set in. Many people have fallen into the dead end of "is this a trend reversal or a pullback?" —

First, the conclusion: No one can accurately answer whether this is a pullback or a trend turning point. Asking me is useless; I'm not a god, I don't know either!

As I wrote a couple of days ago, even top institutions like Bridgewater and Renaissance are betting on probabilities, not from a god's perspective.

What we can do is rephrase the question:

👉 If this is a pullback, can I survive, or even add a bit to my position?

👉 If this is a reversal, can I avoid being dragged down?

The biggest problem for retail investors is being one-track-minded; either they go all in or run for the hills, leaving no sustainable operational space.

In fact, it’s completely unnecessary. A crucial point is to distinguish between core positions and flexible positions —

1⃣ Core Position: This is your foundational holding, the chips that can withstand cycles.

Don’t easily liquidate everything; a true trend reversal often requires waiting for macro logic to break down, liquidity to tighten, and continuous capital outflow to be confirmed, rather than just a day or two of sharp declines.

If the drop is painful, you can ask yourself:

👉 If BTC drops another 20% from now, can you still sleep at night?

If not, then your position is too heavy, and you need to reduce it.

If you can accept it, then hold on, don’t scare yourself.

Set a maximum drawdown that you can accept; if it exceeds that line, decisively reduce your position. Earning a little is always better than ending up with nothing.

2⃣ Flexible Position: You must leave some USDT space, which can ease emotions and keep some bullets in reserve.

If you are particularly anxious, you might consider taking some profits now. In an uncertain environment, non-leading altcoins should be prioritized for reduction; don’t get too attached.

Remember, a true trend is only clear in hindsight.

The future is always ambiguous, but those who can survive are the ones qualified to see the future and discuss the next bull market!

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