Today's homework has been much easier to write. The most important part of the game has already passed. From the actual situation, it is as expected as yesterday. Although the interest rate meeting lowered the rate by 25 basis points, and the dot plot for 2026 was below expectations, the fact that there will be a 25 basis point cut at each meeting in 2025 is still better than expected. Therefore, after a brief decline yesterday, the Asian market performed the best today, completely unaffected by yesterday's 25 basis point cut.

The short-term game regarding interest rates has come to a pause. The next focus, or other games within the year, should be on non-farm payroll data, with labor force and unemployment rate being key points, especially the unemployment rate. Currently at 4.3%, if it continues to rise, it will increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut rates. The neutral value for the unemployment rate given by the Federal Reserve this time is 4.5%, meaning that as long as it does not exceed 4.5%, the pressure on the Federal Reserve is not significant.

Currently, the CME's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has already exceeded 91%, which is also a reason for the positive sentiment.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate did indeed increase during the interest rate meeting, but not by a large margin, and the main players in the turnover are still short-term holders, while long-term holders remain indifferent. This is consistent with the changes in $BTC over the past few months. At least from the current perspective, the overall sentiment has not worsened.

The supporting data is also very stable, indicating that investor sentiment is very stable. There is currently no sign of systemic risk, and we are temporarily in a completely calm period. Even Trump has not criticized Powell this time. The future game should still revolve around US-China relations and the upcoming interactions between Trump and the Federal Reserve.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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