From the scatter plot, most points in 2025 fall within the 3.25%–3.75% range, indicating that the market consensus is for 1–2 more rate cuts (25 basis points each), resulting in a total annual rate cut of about 50 basis points.

This suggests that there may still be room for rate cuts in both October and December.

In 2026, most points are concentrated around 3.0%, which is 25–50 basis points lower than the end of 2025 levels, indicating that the market expects 1–2 rate cuts in 2026 as well, but the magnitude will be smaller than in 2025.

This is not a very positive data point, suggesting that Federal Reserve officials generally believe inflation is still high, the economy remains resilient, and 2026 is not suitable for large-scale rate cuts. It also represents that Trump is at a disadvantage in this round of negotiations.

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