Key Points:
BTC futures open interest has decreased by $2 billion within five days, indicating a cautious attitude among futures traders.
The order consumption on the Binance platform is at a cyclical low, as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The Coinbase premium indicator shows stable demand in the U.S. market, with strong support at the $115,000 price level.
BTC traders seem to be reducing their risk exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision this week, with on-chain and derivatives data showing a significant reduction in leverage, along with signs of stable buying demand around the $115,000 mark.
BTC open interest has decreased by $2 billion since last Friday, dropping from $42 billion to below $40 billion. This decline occurred after BTC briefly touched a high of $116,700 on Monday. Meanwhile, total futures trading volume has been lackluster, with analysts noting that this indicates futures traders are remaining cautious and not making aggressive positions in either direction.
The funding rate, a key indicator measuring the cost of holding perpetual futures positions, is also showing a downward trend. Notably, during Tuesday's London trading session, there was the steepest hourly funding rate spike since August 14, coinciding with a local price top.
Crypto analyst Maartunn stated that the hourly net order consumption on the Binance platform has dropped below $50 million, far below the usual average of $150 million. Such low trading activity clearly points to a wait-and-see market state, with participants generally unwilling to establish new positions before the Federal Reserve clarifies its stance.
While derivatives traders are choosing to stand by, the spot demand on the Coinbase platform presents a completely different market picture. Since last Tuesday, the Coinbase premium (the price difference of BTC between Coinbase and other exchanges) has been steadily rising. This trend clearly reflects the strong buying willingness of U.S. investors, with the current buying cluster intensity being unseen since early August. These capital flow data indicate that market buyers are actively defending the key price level of $115,000.
Broader market sentiment indicators also reflect this delicate balance between caution and calm confidence. The BTC bull market index (an indicator tracking changes in market momentum) has rebounded from a "bearish" level of 20 points over the past four days to a "neutral" level of 50 points. This change indicates that selling pressure in the market is significantly easing, and the overall market is entering a more balanced phase ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.
Meanwhile, the BTC risk index monitored by analyst Axel Adler Jr. currently stands at 23%, close to the low point of this cycle. This indicator is specifically used to measure the relative risk probability of a sharp pullback compared to the past three years.
Axel Adler Jr. noted that low risk index readings typically correspond to "a more stable market environment," significantly reducing the likelihood of rapid liquidation events. He stated that a similar market pattern last appeared between September and December 2023, when BTC prices experienced a period of stable trading before successfully breaking into a new upward trend.
Related: Gold breaks through $3,700 for the first time, Bitcoin (BTC) faces long liquidation risks
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should make decisions after conducting their own research.
Original article: “BTC Futures Traders De-risk for FOMC Meeting, but Coinbase Premium Shows Strong Spot Demand”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
