In the in-depth sharing of Uweb's live class episode 189 titled "Is the Market About to End? Is There Still a Crazy Altcoin Season?" Hong Kong Uweb Principal Yu Jianing and RITDLab Co-founder A Shen engaged in a dialogue on key topics such as market trends, core asset movements, altcoin opportunities, and investment strategies. They combined macro cycles, on-chain data, and practical experience to present investors with a systematic market analysis framework.
Core Judgment: The Bull Market is Still in Its Mid-Stage, Four-Year Cycle Invalidated
Regarding the market's most concerned issue of bull market sustainability, A Shen clearly pointed out that the current market is in a minor adjustment phase within the seventh wave of an upward trend, and the bull market is far from over. The traditional "four-year cycle" has been invalidated due to changes in the market ecosystem. This judgment is based on three core logics:
On a macro level, Bitcoin has been deeply embedded in the U.S. stock system and U.S. macro strategy. The U.S. is pushing the blockchain industry development with national strength, one of its core goals being to alleviate the $36 trillion U.S. debt pressure by boosting cryptocurrency market value. At the same time, the dollar's interest rate cut cycle has reopened, with a total expected cut of 125 basis points. The Trump administration requires a low-interest environment below 3.0% to promote the return of manufacturing, and ample liquidity will continue to support the crypto market. The continuous decline of the dollar index at the weekly level also confirms this trend, and a weaker dollar has historically been an important signal for the strengthening of assets like gold and Bitcoin.
On-chain data shows a healthy trend. The balance of Bitcoin on exchanges is still in a downward trend, only experiencing a brief pause due to the recent rapid increase from $74,500 to $120,000, without showing the bearish characteristics of large holders and institutions continuously selling. From the perspective of stablecoin supply ratio, the current ratio of Bitcoin's total market value to stablecoin market value is 9.2, lower than the peak of 11.2 during the Trump market, and far from the extreme value of 17.3 at the top of the last cycle, indicating that there is still ample follow-up capital in the market. Bitcoin's market value currently accounts for 56.8%, and has not yet reached the approximately 45% area of extreme greed, further confirming that the market has not reached a cyclical top.
The technical trend aligns with strong bull market characteristics. From the perspective of wave theory, the market is in the process of a large-scale seven-wave upward movement, and the minor adjustments within the waves are normal phenomena. At the weekly level, Bitcoin has consistently risen above the MA60 moving average, and even during the panic moment when the tariff war caused a 19% drop in U.S. stocks, it only slightly touched the MA60 position near $74,500, without breaking the previous key support level, which is consistent with the technical characteristics of a strong bull market.
Core Asset Outlook: New Highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum Expected
Regarding the future trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, A Shen provided specific predictions based on multiple indicators:
In the short term, Bitcoin faces adjustment pressure, but the support below is solid. Based on on-chain data and technical analysis, it may pull back to $102,000 in the short term, and in extreme cases, it could touch $95,000, but there is solid support around $97,000. From a medium to long-term perspective, as the interest rate cut cycle continues, institutional funds enter the market, and related legislation is implemented, the mid-term target for Bitcoin is $165,000, with a long-term target reaching $250,000. This judgment stems from the U.S. considering cryptocurrency as a reservoir for the dollar and strengthening the dollar's position, while also referencing the speed of stablecoin issuance and wave theory calculations. If the stablecoin market value reaches $486 billion in the future, combined with historical valuation centers, Bitcoin is expected to reach this target.
Ethereum's upward potential is even more pronounced. Currently, institutional strategic reserves of Ethereum account for only 2.85% of the total, far below Bitcoin's 7.1%, indicating significant room for institutional accumulation. From the exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin, after hitting a five-year low during the tariff war in April, there has been a strong rebound. In the future, as the RWA (Real World Assets) landing process advances, the exchange rate is expected to exceed 0.06. A Shen predicts that Ethereum's rise from a mid-term low of $1,400 to $15,000 aligns with the characteristics of this bull market cycle, with a mid-term target set at $8,300. The logic behind this is the dual drive of institutional promotion and ecological development, and Ethereum's first-mover advantage in the RWA field will further amplify its value.
Altcoin Opportunities: Good Coins Drive Out Bad Coins, Local Markets Expected
Regarding the much-discussed "altcoin season," A Shen pointed out that the current altcoin market shows characteristics of "local activity, good coins driving out bad coins." The notion that "the altcoin season hasn't arrived" is merely a misjudgment of individual holdings not rising; in fact, the altcoin index has risen to 78, and market sentiment has clearly rebounded.
For the selection logic of altcoins, A Shen emphasized two core dimensions: first, fundamentals. When institutions form teams to make moves, they tend to choose projects with real applications and protocol revenues, such as AV1, ENA in the Ethereum ecosystem, and CRV in the DeFi field. These projects are more likely to attract funding due to their real value support; second, the strength of the market makers. Some well-known market makers or those whose strength can be judged from market performance are more likely to show independent market movements.
The rotation rhythm of altcoins is also crucial, typically following the pattern of "Bitcoin leading the rise—Ethereum catching up—mainstream altcoins following." When operating, it is recommended to refer to weekly level trend judgments to avoid misjudgments caused by excessive daily fluctuations. A Shen specifically pointed out that the next concentrated opportunity for altcoins may appear after Ethereum breaks through $8,000, at which point market sentiment will heat up and retail investors' floating profits will increase, driving funds toward quality altcoin targets.
Additionally, A Shen mentioned that the new track combining AI and Web3 is worth paying close attention to. Historical experience shows that new altcoins with innovative attributes (like Uniswap in 2020) often have greater upward potential than old altcoins, while traditional altcoins face limited opportunities due to excessive retail holdings and high market maker lifting costs.
Investment Framework and Strategy: Rational Layout Under Multi-Dimensional Resonance
In the sharing, A Shen revealed his mature investment analysis framework and practical strategies, providing clear guidance for investors:
Indicator Priority Ranking
Macro Cycle and Policy: The progress of the interest rate cut cycle and the implementation of policies such as the U.S. "Large Amount of U.S. Law" and "Stablecoin Law" are the top-level judgment basis, determining the long-term trend of the market;
On-Chain Data: Changes in exchange balances (Ethereum has seen a net outflow of 11.4% over the past three years), dynamics of long-term holders' positions, and 30-day capital inflow data directly reflect institutional fund movements;
Funding Indicators: New stablecoin market value (currently adding $3 billion weekly, potentially reaching $4.5 billion), spot ETF trading volume and net flow, assessing the market's liquidity level;
Sentiment and Technical Indicators: Fear and Greed Index, RSI divergence, and positions of MA60 and MA200 moving averages, assisting in judging short-term buy and sell points.
Trading Strategy and Position Management
Left-side trading requires a focus on market sentiment. When the fear index drops to around 10 in the extreme fear zone (such as when Bitcoin fell to $78,000 in March 2024), one can first establish a 50% position and then gradually add to the position over the next 10 days, as institutional funds typically enter quickly after panic is released, leaving limited time for retail investors to position themselves. After left-side trading, it is recommended to hold positions for 6-18 months to avoid short-term operations that erode profits.
Right-side trading is suitable for entering after trend confirmation. When the price breaks through key resistance levels accompanied by funding resonance (such as when Bitcoin broke through $85,000 in April 2024), one can decisively chase the rise, setting a stop loss of 5%-10%. In a bull market, the risk-reward ratio for right-side trading can reach a 50% profit corresponding to a 6% stop loss, which is highly cost-effective.
In terms of position management, institutions currently generally maintain an 80% position and use options for hedging. Ordinary investors can maintain a 60-70% spot position, setting a 10% cash defensive order near $102,000 (Bitcoin) and $3,500-$3,700 (Ethereum) to cope with extreme pullbacks.
Signals for Reducing Positions and Escaping Peaks
When mid-term targets are reached (Bitcoin at $165,000, Ethereum at $8,300), one can reduce positions by 30% and hedge with options; after long-term targets are reached (Bitcoin at $250,000, Ethereum at $15,000), one can first reduce holdings by 50%, and then gradually liquidate based on on-chain data over the next 20 days.
To escape peaks, one should pay attention to the resonance of multiple indicators: Bitcoin's market value ratio falls below 45%, significant declines in long-term holders' balances, stablecoin supply ratio exceeds 12, and sentiment indicators enter the extreme greed zone. When three or more signals appear, one should decisively reduce positions.
Extended Topics: Interpretation of Other Targets and Market Influencing Factors
Regarding other mainstream targets like SOL and BNB, A Shen believes SOL is expected to capture 30% of the market share in the RWA field, and the probability of spot ETF approval is 90%, expected to land in the first half of 2025, which will open up funding inflow channels. BNB, on the other hand, faces limited growth in spot trading volume as institutions prefer to hold Bitcoin and Ethereum directly, and it faces competition from traditional brokerages in the RWA field, maintaining a neutral stance.
Regarding the SEC's push for a universal listing standard for crypto ETPs, A Shen pointed out that this will accelerate the entry of compliant funds, but the core still depends on whether major institutions like BlackRock apply for related products. Only targets that meet the "core asset logic" can benefit. Events like Base's token issuance reflect a new trend of "token and security integration" under the Trump administration, and more listed companies may adopt a "stock + token" financing model in the future, bringing new innovative opportunities to the market.
Conclusion
Combining macro cycles, on-chain data, and technical analysis, both A Shen and Yu Jianing believe that the crypto market bull market has not yet ended, and Bitcoin and Ethereum still have opportunities for new highs this year. Short-term adjustments instead provide a layout window for rational investors. Altcoins present structural opportunities, focusing on quality fundamentals and strong market maker strength, while seizing rotation opportunities after Ethereum breaks through.
Yu Jianing emphasized that the current market has entered a new stage of "macro-driven + data-validated," and investors need to abandon the rigid cyclical thinking and build their own multi-dimensional analysis framework. For ordinary investors, following the trends of professional institutions, focusing on core assets and quality altcoin targets, while managing positions and controlling risks, is essential to grasp long-term opportunities amid market fluctuations.
(Note: This article is based on the complete sharing content of Uweb's live class episode 189. The relevant point predictions are personal opinions of the guests and are for learning reference only, not constituting investment advice.)
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