ε=(´ο｀*))) Sigh, the reverse indicator power is still strong…

I'm out, the fluctuations in the imitation market are just too crazy.

The current trend is completely determined by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and press conference a few days from now…

Revisiting the entire market, the initial bearish logic is still there.

It's just that some data along the way and news about Trump possibly changing the Federal Reserve chairman have boosted bullish sentiment.

The independence of the Federal Reserve is still intact; if Trump wanted to change the chairman, he would have done it by now…

So let's return to the Federal Reserve's usual way of thinking.

Initially, they will lower interest rates to test the waters and see the market's reaction, which will definitely be a 25 basis point cut, rather than directly cutting 50 basis points due to a few random data points. The earlier data has increased market expectations for a larger rate cut, leading to a small wave in the market.

But I guess there is a 99% probability that it will be a 25 basis point cut, in line with market expectations.

Then at the press conference, they will continue to "play Tai Chi," still needing to look at subsequent data to adjust the frequency and intensity of future rate hikes, continuing to wait and observe.

Therefore, I lean towards a bearish outlook for crypto…

If the press conference is bullish for crypto, with an increase in the dot plot and future rate cut frequency and intensity, Bitcoin could directly break through $116,600.

If it's bearish, but there's a possibility of a spike and then a drop, the entire market may surge on the data release and then fall after the press conference.

Advice: manage your spot positions well; if you were fully invested before, reduce your position by 40-50%.

For contracts, control your hands, sleep well, and wake up the next day~

Awesome traders stay up late watching the market, do your high sell low buy, and ride the waves driven by data and news to make a fortune 😉😉😉

Wishing everyone successful trading 🙂

BTC

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