I do feel much better today, and I hope to be completely well in the next day or two. This weekend has been quite nice, calm and peaceful. I was a bit worried yesterday about whether I would feel down during the Asian time zone today, but I found that there was no change. However, as we approach early Thursday, the market's speculative nature should increase. Last week, I still thought that a rate cut of 0 to 25 basis points was possible, but after a week, I think the possibility of zero is smaller, and 25 is more likely.

If a 50 basis point cut happens, it would be a victory for Trump, as the market would definitely see it as Powell's compromise. Unless Powell explicitly states that there is a risk of economic recession in the U.S., a 50 basis point cut in September would basically be because the majority of votes are leaning towards Trump. No more guessing; we will know in four working days. I want to remind everyone that instead of guessing the outcome, it’s better to calculate for yourself.

If there is a 25 basis point cut, how should you operate?

If there is a 50 basis point cut, how should you operate?

If there is no rate cut, how should you operate?

Once you have a clear understanding of these three questions and set your own risk preferences, you will be fine. For example, for me, if there is a 25 basis point cut, I will continue to hold my position. If there is a 50 basis point cut, I will open a short position and probably close it when Powell speaks. If there is no rate cut, I will prepare to buy the dip. If you are well-prepared for these scenarios, it won’t matter what happens.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, I thought there would be less trading today, but I didn't expect it to be this low. It should be the day with the lowest trading volume this year, with less than 18,000 $BTC changing addresses on-chain in the entire 24 hours. This data is even more bearish than most of the bear market periods, which indicates that real investors have little interest in BTC.

Everyone is probably waiting for early Thursday. There is also retail data coming out on Monday, which, although not very important, is still an economic indicator. Of course, in the face of Thursday, its importance is somewhat diminished. So the focus remains on the three possible outcomes of the rate cut; how will you operate in the market?

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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