1. Market Forecast: The Probability of the Federal Reserve Cutting Interest Rates in September is as High as 90%
Click the link to enter the Tencent meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 Bitcoin breaks through $116,000, Ethereum rises above $4,500, and SOL surpasses $230… The crypto market is experiencing a surge across the board. Behind this capital feast, is it an opportunity or a trap? On the morning of September 12, the cryptocurrency market welcomed a rapid increase. Bitcoin briefly broke through $116,000, Ethereum surpassed $4,500, and SOL also broke through the $230 mark. This frenzy is not coincidental. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August was lower than expected, sharply increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, leading to a flood of funds into risk assets.
01 The Market is All in the Green, Bitcoin Leads the Crypto Market In today's surge in the crypto market, Bitcoin undoubtedly plays the leading role. According to HTX market data, on the morning of September 12, Bitcoin briefly broke through $116,000, then stabilized around $115,910. Not only did Bitcoin perform impressively, but mainstream altcoins also followed suit. Ethereum broke through $4,500, currently quoted at $4,505; SOL broke through $230, currently quoted at $231.83. The market presents a prosperous scene.
02 Rate Cut Expectations Boost Funds Flowing into Risk Assets Behind this surge is the strong expectation of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The U.S. August PPI data was below expectations, further strengthening market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market expects a 90% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17. Traditionally, rate cuts are seen as favorable news for risk assets. The cryptocurrency analysis platform Tephra Digital points out that if Bitcoin continues to maintain a "lagging correlation" with the M2 money supply and gold prices, its price could reach between $167,000 and $185,000 by the end of the year.
03 The Bull Market Matures, Peak May Be Approaching CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. points out that it has been 504 days since the last Bitcoin halving, and the current market is in the mature stage of a bull market. In this cycle, Bitcoin's price has experienced multiple fluctuations. The final judgment of the cycle's peak needs to wait for the appearance of the "peak flag" indicator, which typically triggers when the spot price is about 11 times the price realized by long-term holders, expected to appear as early as October to November 2025.
04 The Durability of the Crypto Feast, Divergent Market Views In the face of the current hot crypto market, the most concerning question for investors is undoubtedly: How long can this feast last? There is a clear divergence in market views on this. Some analysts believe that the crypto market may follow a "three-stage script": in the short term (the next 3-4 weeks), there may be turbulence and correction; in the medium term (from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026), a liquidity-driven market will emerge; in the long term (starting Q1 2026), it may face inflation risks and policy reversals. However, the cyclical patterns of the crypto market indicate that each bull market follows a specific pattern: starting from an accumulation phase, experiencing an acceleration phase, and finally entering a correction phase. The explosive period that truly brings substantial returns is often concentrated within just a month or two. The influx of funds driven by rate cut expectations, the continuous entry of institutional investors, and the pro-cryptocurrency policy inclination of the Trump administration together form the support for this round of increases. The cyclical patterns of the market indicate that bull markets typically follow a specific pattern: from the accumulation phase to the acceleration phase, and finally entering the correction phase. Opportunities in the crypto market are often fleeting, especially during this critical period that may change the wealth landscape in the short term. However, the cryptocurrency market is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty. Any investment decision should be based on in-depth research and risk assessment. While pursuing high returns, one must also fully recognize the potential risks.
Operational Suggestions: BTC 115150 go long, first target 116650, second target 117800; ETH 4505 go long, first target 4565, second target 4630.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal views and aims to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the stance or views of AICoin. The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. -Original
2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Interviews Four Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair
According to Golden Finance, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra has interviewed four of the at least eleven candidates for Federal Reserve Chair. -Original
3. Deutsche Bank Predicts Three Rate Cuts by the Federal Reserve This Year
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year, having previously predicted cuts only in September and December. -Original
4. BlackRock Transfers 9,983 ETH to Coinbase Prime
According to Arkham monitoring, about three hours ago, BlackRock transferred 9,983 ETH, worth approximately $45.1 million, to the Coinbase Prime address through its Ethereum ETF (ETHA). -Original
5. U.S. Justice Department Plans to Seize Wallet Funds from Iranian Drone Supplier
The U.S. Justice Department has filed a civil forfeiture lawsuit to seize $584,741 worth of USDT from the non-custodial crypto wallet of Iranian citizen Mohammad Abedini. It is reported that Abedini is the founder of Iran's SDRA company, which provides technical support for Iran's "Shahed" military drones. The Justice Department alleges that these funds are related to illegal activities but did not disclose further details about the wallet or the source of the funds. -Original
6. Kalshi Predicts 54% Probability of U.S. Government Shutdown
On September 12, according to data from the prediction market Kalshi, the market currently estimates a 54% chance of a U.S. government shutdown this year, the highest level in months. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer warned on Thursday that if Republicans refuse to include key healthcare provisions in any agreement, Democrats are prepared to let government funding run out. -Original
7. Winklevoss Brothers Predict Bitcoin Will Reach $1 Million in Ten Years
The Winklevoss brothers stated that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next ten years. They believe Bitcoin is "Gold 2.0," and if it replaces gold, its price is expected to rise significantly. This statement was made on the eve of Gemini's IPO. -Original
8. Allied Gaming Makes First Investment in Bitcoin and Ethereum
Global experiential entertainment company Allied Gaming & Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ: AGAE) announced that as part of its corporate financial management strategy, it has made its first investment in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This marks AGAE's beginning to incorporate cryptocurrencies into its balance sheet and lays the foundation for its future plans in the blockchain and RWA (real-world asset) tokenization space. Currently, the company has not disclosed the specific scale of its cryptocurrency holdings. -Original
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