I was dawdling for half the day before remembering that I hadn't done my homework; I seem to have a bit of lazy procrastination. The biggest surprise for the market today was the significant drop in the non-farm payroll revision data, which almost exceeded the expectations of all forecasting agencies, directly embedding the word "recession" in the minds of many investors. Although this could increase the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, the market is still quite worried about a recession coupled with rate cuts.

However, I see that this concern has already been corrected by the time the U.S. market closed, or perhaps investors are once again celebrating a funeral. After all, we are still quite far from a recession; it's just that the data has raised market concerns. Currently, the U.S. economic situation is likely in the early or mid-stages of stagflation, and if Trump pushes hard enough, there are ways to address it.

As mentioned yesterday, none of these are the main battles in the current market. The upcoming CPI and PPI are not either; the focus remains on the competition between Trump and the Federal Reserve over interest rates. If Trump wins, everything will be fine; if he loses, then we really have to wait and see.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, today's trading volume is still not high. Even though the price fluctuated due to the non-farm data, the trading volume of $BTC has increased very little. This again indicates that the current price is not very attractive to investors, and the market's attention to the non-farm data is not that pronounced. For now, let's wait and see what the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting brings.

From a price perspective, BTC's stability is still quite good, with very solid support levels, and no systemic risks are currently visible. The U.S. stock market has returned to an upward trend, so BTC shouldn't perform too poorly either.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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