JPMorgan: The Federal Reserve May Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points, Not 50

JPMorgan's Fabio Bassi expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, citing weak employment data, but inflation remains high.

He stated that the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is low.

The risk of recession is close to 40%, but the market expects only a slight decrease in growth risks. Bassi noted that President Cook faces political pressure after being dismissed, but he stated that the independence of the Federal Reserve remains solid.

If the weakness is temporary, he believes the easing path will be more moderate, with limited pullback in risk assets and a stronger dollar.

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