Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will restart interest rate cuts in September, which will be nine months since the last cut in December 2024. Analysts suggest that such a long period of policy stagnation could be particularly beneficial for the stock market, potentially extending and amplifying the market's upward trend.
In the past 11 instances where the Federal Reserve paused for 5 to 12 months before cutting rates again, the S&P 500 index rose in the year following the rate cut in 10 of those cases.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows a 10% probability of a 50 basis point cut and a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut, despite the global bond market facing selling pressure, with long-term bond yields in many countries soaring. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond rose to 5%, while Japan's 30-year Treasury bond yield hit a historic high, and the yields on 30-year Treasury bonds in Germany, the UK, and France also reached their highest levels in years.
Gold continues to hit new highs at 3631, having risen 132 points from the previous high of 3499 in just about a week.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin's price has risen above the MA120 and MA20, with the next resistance at 113500 and 115400. In the short term, we continue to look for a rebound. Last week, the analysis indicated a head and shoulders bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart, with a quick drop after a spike to 113344, continuing the rebound. The daily chart has also formed an ascending triangle resistance at 113500, and the daily MACD shows a crossover above the zero line, indicating a continued short-term rebound.
Last week's weekly close spiked below 113500, but if this week opens with a continued upward rebound and the price can close above 113500, it would be quite optimistic. There are still nine days left, so we need to pay attention to the extent of Bitcoin's pullback after the rate cut.
Support: 107211 to 109200
Resistance: 113500 to 115400 to 117400
Ethereum
Although Ethereum's weekly candle closed bearish, it cannot be fully considered a bearish engulfing pattern, as it has not broken below the low of 4060. The daily chart has shown a narrow range of fluctuations for several days, and the height of the short-term rebound is limited. It is still possible to wait for a good pullback opportunity to enter.
The 4-hour high for Ethereum is continuously decreasing, but support around 4200 is quite evident, maintaining a range-bound movement within the box. For now, it can only hold a small position, while many altcoins have presented good buying opportunities.
Support: 3850 to 4060
Resistance: 4500 to 4788 to 4956
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