Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.87 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.09%, which is $2.24 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $288.1 billion, with a 1.7% increase over the past 7 days, of which USDT accounts for 59.2%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have risen while most have fallen, including: M with a 7-day increase of 248.24%, PUMP with a 7-day increase of 38.69%, IP with a 7-day increase of 33.08%, SKY with a 7-day increase of 18.29%, and POL with a 7-day increase of 17.46%.
This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $250 million; the net outflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $787 million.
Market Forecast (September 8 - September 13) :
Currently, the RSI index is at 48.34, showing a neutral to weak trend. The Fear and Greed Index is at 49 (higher than last week). Although a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is highly likely, September is traditionally a weak month for cryptocurrencies, and the market may face some downward pressure.
BTC core range: $107,000 - $111,000. Short-term traders can consider light long positions near support and light short positions near resistance.
ETH core range: $4,200 - $4,400. Short-term traders can choose to sell high and buy low, and operate in the direction of the trend after breaking the range.
The overall market is in a range-bound fluctuation, and attention can be focused on some strong coins, such as SOL with technical breakout potential and XRP, which has ended its lawsuit with the SEC.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On September 1, cryptocurrencies accessed self-managed pensions, pouring into Australia's approximately $2.8 trillion savings pool;
On September 1, the Ethereum Foundation officially announced that the Holešky testnet has reached the end of its lifecycle as planned and will soon cease operations;
On September 2, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve is and should remain independent, but it has indeed made many mistakes. The nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Milan, is likely to take office before the September Federal Reserve meeting. It is believed that the Supreme Court will support U.S. President Trump's tariffs;
On September 4, according to The Information, the world's largest prediction market Polymarket has been approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to return to the U.S. market;
On September 4, the Trump family-backed mining company American Bitcoin (code ABTC) saw its stock price rise nearly 17% on its first day of trading to $8.04 per share, reaching a high of $14 during the day. The stock's first-day trading volume exceeded 29 million shares;
On September 5, Bitmine, the first institutional holder of Ethereum, increased its holdings by 48,225 ETH, worth $207.54 million;
On September 5, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed to provide a safe harbor for cryptocurrencies and reform broker-dealer rules. The proposed rule changes may affect the SEC's guidelines for broker-dealers, custody, and reporting, potentially allowing cryptocurrency companies to operate in the U.S. with less regulatory oversight and reducing the risk of legal action;
On September 5, Justin Sun's address transferred 50 million WLFI before being blacklisted by WLFI, leaving a remaining holding of 545 million WLFI worth $102.3 million.
Macroeconomics
On September 4, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level since June, further indicating that the labor market is cooling. Data shows that for the week ending August 30, initial jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 237,000. The median forecast from institutions was 230,000. Meanwhile, the number of continuing jobless claims remained stable at 1.94 million;
On September 4, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 97.4%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 2.6%;
On September 5, the U.S. added 22,000 non-farm payrolls in August, with expectations of 75,000.
ETF
According to statistics, from September 1 to September 5, the net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $250 million; as of September 5, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.961 billion, currently holding $19.91 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.778 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $146.032 billion.
The net outflow for U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $787 million.
Envisioning the Future
Event Preview
EDCON 2025 will be held from September 16 to 19 in Osaka, Japan, gathering members of the global Ethereum community to discuss protocol updates, ecosystem development, and the future of Web3;
Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will be held from September 22 to 28 in South Korea.
Project Progress
Nasdaq-listed company Bit Digital will hold a shareholder meeting on September 10, 2025, proposing to increase authorized capital from $3.5 million to $10.1 million to support growth strategies, including purchasing Ethereum;
The MITO Genesis airdrop claim for Mitosis will close on September 11 at 21:00. The Mitosis Foundation stated that the MITO for paying claim gas fees has been deposited in the claim addresses registered by users.
Important Events
On September 11 at 20:30, the U.S. will release the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for August;
On September 11 at 20:30, the U.S. will release the initial jobless claims number for the week ending September 6 (in thousands);
Token Unlocking
Apots (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on September 11, worth approximately $48.97 million, accounting for 2.2% of the circulating supply;
Axie Infinity (AXS) will unlock 652,500 tokens on September 9, worth approximately $1.55 million, accounting for 0.25% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also interact with you through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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