Bitcoin once again rebounded near 107200, reaching a high of 110700 before continuing to pull back in the short term. Previously, I mentioned that if it breaks below MA120 and cannot quickly reclaim above 20 in the next two to three days, it will accelerate its decline. Today marks the fourth day since the break, with a spike touching MA120. Pay attention to whether it can hold above the levels mentioned in yesterday's analysis, which also reminded that the short-term resistance for the rebound is between 112000 and 113500.
Ethereum spiked to 4205 last night and rebounded, marking the fourth day of decline below MA20. The BTC Dominance (total market cap ratio) has shown a bottom divergence on the daily chart, and there is a descending wedge indicating a short-term need for a rebound. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has retraced to MA20, also showing a top divergence. Given this situation, if funds flow back into Bitcoin, it may lead to a short-term pullback in Ethereum and altcoins, as seen last night when Ethereum slightly spiked while altcoins dropped significantly.
Gold spiked to a historic high of 3508, currently hovering around 3493. If it remains strong, it will likely set new highs in the next couple of days. The next FOMC meeting is still half a month away, and the probability of a rate cut is currently at 89.7%, which remains quite high. Non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday. Historically, the first week of September usually sees a decline, while the week leading up to a rate cut tends to rise. After a pullback in the latter half of the month, October is typically the best-performing month.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a wild short-term fluctuation, which is also a method of shaking out weak hands. Therefore, we need to pay attention to whether it can reclaim MA120. Only by reclaiming it can there be a chance to test 113500 and 115000. Bitcoin is currently at a critical pressure zone between 110000 and 112000, acting as a dividing line between bulls and bears.
The daily chart shows a potential descending wedge and a descending channel on the 4-hour chart. The MACD histogram on the daily chart is shortening. We need to watch whether it can return above the zero axis and if there is an increase in volume.
Support: 107000 to 108000
Resistance: 112000 to 113500 to 117500
Ethereum
Ethereum has tested support multiple times at the bottom of the large bullish candle on August 22, but the daily chart has been consistently suppressed by the MA20 moving average, with a chance of dropping to around MA60, which is between 3800 and 3900.
The 4-hour chart is still viewed as a range-bound fluctuation. We will see if there is a chance of a false break to 3800 to 3900. Ethereum's ETF has shown an outflow since the 29th, so the movements of Ethereum and altcoins need to be monitored more closely.
Support: 3800 to 3900 to 4060
Resistance: 4500 to 4665 to 4956
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This article is time-sensitive and for reference only, with real-time updates.
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