Bitcoin's new moon opening has temporarily not fallen below the July bottom support around 105,000. A monthly engulfing pattern has not yet formed, but the weekly M-top has broken down, entering a densely packed area of chips in the market, which is extremely fearful. However, I believe there are signs of approaching a short-term bottom. The hourly level saw a minimum spike at 107,211, rebounding 2,600 points before continuing to drop back to around 108,600.
Ethereum's monthly line has closed with upper and lower wicks, while the daily line remains at the bottom of the large bullish candle from August 22. The important support for Ethereum is around 4,060 and 4,200. Although the daily ascending support line has temporarily broken, it can only be viewed as oscillating within a high-level box.
Gold's highest spike reached 3,489, about 10 points away from the high, while Bitcoin has been continuously declining. Recently, the two have shown opposite trends. Tonight, with the U.S. stock market closed, Bitcoin has often dropped in the first week of the new moon since the beginning of the year. Additionally, with the upcoming interest rate cut around September 18, it is possible that the market will first rally and then adjust. September is generally a poor month, but from late September to October, it usually rises. Therefore, there is no need to panic too much about whether 125,000 is the peak of this bull market; we need to observe the upcoming rebound situation. If this price level cannot be broken through, then we need to be concerned.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has retraced 13.85% from its highest point. In a bull market, a typical drop of around 10% often leads to a rebound, or a drop of 30% will result in a low point. Declines do not happen all at once, and the same goes for increases.
The monthly line opening has not broken below the July low of 105,000, and a swallowing pattern has not yet appeared. However, the first month of the new moon usually sees a decline, and this Friday, there will be non-farm payroll data to pay attention to.
After breaking the previous low, the 4-hour chart quickly recovered, currently hovering around 108,900. Although it cannot be 100% confirmed that this is the stage bottom, I believe there is no need to panic as it is relatively close to the stage rebound low. As long as 107,210 does not break, this can be considered a rebound low. We also need to pay attention to whether the descending channel can break through; in the short term, we will first look for a rebound, with resistance at 110,000 and 103,500.
Support: 105,000 to 107,000
Resistance: 110,000 to 113,500 to 117,500
Ethereum
Ethereum's daily line shows a false breakdown. The daily ascending support line has broken, and the continuous rebounds over the past three days have been suppressed by the MA20. It has not yet broken below the support around 4,200 from the large bullish candle on August 22, so there is no need to panic too much. A high-level box oscillation is not ruled out.
On the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, despite my belief that Ethereum will follow Bitcoin for a rebound, the current position can only be traded short-term, and the cost-effectiveness is still not high. If there is a subsequent drop below 4,060, then a rebound opportunity can be considered for significant accumulation.
Support: 3,900 to 4,060 to 4,200
Resistance: 4,500 to 4,665 to 4,788
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Official account: BTC Trading Young Master Fusu
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