The homework for Sunday is also very simple. Monday is Labor Day in the United States, and the markets will be closed, meaning there will be no US stocks or CME, which also means no ETFs. Therefore, the liquidity this week is very low, which is a good thing for the current market. With the US markets closed, there is an extra day of rest, and over the past two days, $BTC has remained relatively stable.
Of course, tomorrow is when $WLFI officially starts trading, which may have some impact on liquidity, but it is likely to be short-lived. The most critical data next week will still be the labor data. Starting Wednesday, we will have job vacancies, Thursday will bring the ADP non-farm employment change, and Friday will be the big non-farm payrolls report. Therefore, starting Wednesday, market sentiment will become tense, with the most important data being the labor and unemployment rate figures on Friday.
The most important event in September is the mid-month interest rate meeting. The main market speculation is around the interest rate cut in September, the dot plot, and the US economy. We have discussed this for a long time, and quantitatively, it relates to the Trump camp's positions in the Federal Reserve and the thoughts of the centrist members regarding interest rate cuts. A rate cut in September may not be 100% guaranteed.
Looking at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate continued to decline on Sunday, which is normal. Monday is also a holiday, and as long as there are no significant price fluctuations, it is likely that the turnover rate on Monday will not be high. Currently, it seems that investors have alleviated some of the panic from last week, and the selling pressure has not intensified. There are still slightly more investors exiting who bought the dip before Friday.
From a support perspective, although it has fallen below $110,000, the open interest between $112,000 and $118,000 has not shown a significant reduction, indicating that investors who are trapped at high levels are not in a state of extreme panic. Therefore, the price still has some attraction.
Of course, the focus next week will be on the non-farm payroll data. Good and bad data could both be interpreted as bad, and it will depend on how the market interprets it.
This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh
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