BTC is currently at a stage where technical and macro factors are intertwined. Since August, BTC has dropped by 3.9%, far below the historical average increase of 0.5% for the same period. The price of BTC has rarely declined in August, and the seasonal performance in September has historically been poor. The consolidation of BTC is expected to continue for another 2–3 weeks until new catalytic factors drive price fluctuations. As macro data is gradually released, market uncertainty may further increase.

The market is experiencing intensified fluctuations due to macro factors. Trump's manipulation of personnel at the Federal Reserve may affect the market's recognition of the Fed's independence. The lawsuit hearing initiated by Fed Governor Cook is worth the market's attention; the collaboration between the U.S. Department of Commerce and on-chain oracle has also led to a rapid surge in PYTH prices, with a maximum increase of over 100% in 24 hours… Currently, BTC is oscillating in a critical range that separates bulls and bears. Is this round of fluctuations merely a phase of consolidation, or a precursor to a trend reversal? Close attention is needed.

Core economic data to be released soon, may impact market interest rate cut expectations

Last week, Powell's somewhat dovish remarks during the Jackson Hole meeting shocked the market. Powell emphasized the current downside risks to employment and expressed a willingness to temporarily overlook inflationary pressures related to tariffs. Powell is attempting to maintain the Fed's independence/reputation to some extent through the results of the monetary policy framework assessment (which canceled the average inflation targeting regime in favor of a more orthodox 2% inflation target). The committee stressed the need to "anchor" inflation expectations at a higher neutral Fed interest rate level.

Many core data points, including the PCE price index, new home sales, trade inventories, and non-farm data, are set to be released. Although the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, the uncertainty surrounding import tariffs may weigh on the economic outlook. If the PCE price index released this week falls short of expectations (projected to rise 2.6% year-on-year), it may intensify market skepticism regarding a shift in Fed policy.

Nvidia's earnings report shows resilience, but AI bubble and policy regulation impact tech stock performance

After a week of poor performance in tech stocks, Nvidia released its earnings report this week. The information revealed that Nvidia's second-quarter revenue was $46.7 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. However, the year-on-year growth rate is the lowest in over two years, failing to deliver another significant "surprise" that exceeds expectations. Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock price briefly fell by 3%. Goldman Sachs stated in its latest report that while Nvidia's recently announced quarterly performance and next quarter's guidance are solid and generally in line with Wall Street expectations, they may still struggle to meet the previously high market expectations, potentially leading to downward pressure on its stock price in the short term. The market is closely watching how Nvidia responds under the AI bubble, supply chain constraints, and policy regulations, as well as the details of Nvidia's business in China.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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