When I was a child, I chased butterflies in my free time; as I grew up, I only chased dreams. Now, my hometown is left with only a scarecrow, and the watch drawn on the back of my hand has never moved a moment. Looking back now, it has indeed been over thirty years. In hindsight, those days have long become shadows in old photographs. It turns out that time is the most fleeting thing; as we walk on, many people and things are no longer here.

Yesterday's market was still different from our expectations. According to our analysis, in the current overall weak market, a typical market rebound after a bottoming out would not have much strength. However, this time, after bottoming out around 108700, it has risen above 113000. In terms of operations, since we still maintain a bearish outlook, after taking profits on long positions below, we began to short. However, due to yesterday's volatile rebound, the profit margin for shorting did not open up, and we were ultimately stopped out. Currently, with the market above 113000, our strategy of shorting above 113000 has re-entered the market. Next, we need to look for a downward test before re-establishing our positions.

Returning to today's market, let's first look at the distribution of liquidity. In the short term, there doesn't seem to be any particularly strong long or short liquidity clearing intensity. There is still some short liquidity near 113600 that has not been cleared. On the downside, due to the recent volatile rebound and yesterday's somewhat uncomfortable victory for the bulls, many long positions have been closed. Therefore, the current long liquidity below is showing a lot of dispersion but not a large concentration, which makes the short-term liquidity seem to lack strong reference significance in the current situation. If we expand the liquidity cycle, the liquidity distribution indicates that either there will be another test below the new low of 108000, or we need to clear the short liquidity below 120000. The spot premium index remains the same; although the premium has rebounded during the volatile rebound, the strength of the rebound is also weak, indicating that some funds have entered, but they may be more speculative participants.

On the technical side, on the daily level, there is another rebound, currently touching the MA7 short-term moving average, which is a probing process against the short-term resistance above. Whether it can close above the resistance is crucial for the short-term market. Other moving averages are still in a downward trend, and the bearish structure has not changed significantly. In terms of technical indicators, MACD is beginning to converge in the bearish cycle, coupled with RSI turning upwards, suggesting that there is an effort to change the trend on the daily chart. There is still an expectation for a rebound on the daily level; the key is whether it rebounds directly or tests the bottom before rebounding, which represents two different trend scenarios.

On the four-hour level, it is still in a low-level volatile bottoming trend. Initially, we expected this rebound trend to end quickly and test lower again, but it has instead rebounded again. Currently, the strength is decent, and the rebound highs are moving upwards. In terms of technical indicators, MACD is in a bullish rebound cycle. Since the previous two cycles had downward movements, this indicates that if there is no strong upward movement in the next four hours, we will face a trend cycle change. The downward test realization, as we mentioned earlier, raises the question of whether it will directly reach the cycle's low point to complete a thorough bullish liquidation.

In terms of operations, our short position above 113000 is near the cost, and we are still looking forward to another downward test before establishing long positions. This rhythm would be the most perfect. If there are changes in the short-term market today, we will arrange accordingly based on real-time market conditions. It seems that the market has a hint of a turning point these days; let's observe further.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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