In the blink of an eye, it is already autumn, and time seems to have accelerated. Everyone goes through a particularly difficult period, facing the hardships of life, the disappointments of work, and the anxiety of love. If you can get through it, life will become clear and bright; if you can't, time will teach you how to make peace with it. While we chase the distant scenery, please do not overlook the scenery along the way!
The market indeed remains weak. Just yesterday, I mentioned in the article that based on the market's movement, it was highly likely to test the 109500 support level. Unexpectedly, the downward pressure was strong enough to directly spike down to around 108700. Overall, the bearish sentiment is still very strong. In terms of operations, we were quite clear about maintaining a bearish outlook yesterday, aiming for a drop to around 109500, and then looking for short-term rebound opportunities. The downward trend did provide that, and subsequently, we also received long positions at the lower levels, which almost hit the stop-loss position. Currently, with the market rebounding after hitting a bottom, the long position at 109500 is in a small profit state, and that's about it.
Returning to today's market, we still need to look at the distribution of liquidity. As mentioned yesterday, in a weak market, after the decline, there are still some resilient high-leverage bulls gathering. This behavior itself fuels the market's continued liquidation. Additionally, from the capital flow perspective, as clearly introduced yesterday, the overall market funds have shown signs of outflow recently, with strong selling pressure from the spot market. Therefore, the continuous downward movement is necessary to reach lower levels, providing a suitable target price for bottom-fishing funds. For the subsequent market, we need to watch when the buying power from the spot market starts to enter, indicating a relative low point for a pullback. In terms of liquidity distribution, both bulls and bears are gathering in the short term. The short-term bearish liquidity is starting to be located around 110800-111, along with a further position at 114500. Meanwhile, the remaining bullish liquidity is being liquidated again around 107000.
On the technical side, the daily chart shows a continuous series of bearish candles. Since last week, we have been discussing the bearish trend on the daily chart, and the current market is just confirming this situation. However, with the release of bearish volume, as mentioned yesterday, the test of the MA120 daily support has completed a downward probe and has returned to a pin bar. In the current weak structure, I personally cannot determine whether the support will be effective. However, from the MACD perspective, as the volume is gradually released, as long as there is no significant downward probe again, there is still a possibility of a rebound entering a bullish cycle on the MACD timeframe, fulfilling the expectation of indicator repair. This repair process is likely to be a weak rebound. My plan is to wait for the expected rebound on the daily chart to materialize before considering a long-term high-position short layout, including the short position above 120000 that I previously established.
On the four-hour chart, it is evident that we have been discussing the continuous bottom-testing structure. We can see that from the historical high of 124000, the market has been retracing downwards, continuously refreshing the low points, with the rebounds being weak. This aligns with our ongoing operational strategy, focusing on short positions while planning for short-term longs. Fortunately, following this strategy, we have made more profits and have justified our approach throughout this market. From the current four-hour perspective, the situation remains the same: after testing the bottom, although there has been a rebound, the strength of the rebound is insufficient. In this case, we see the market continuously probing lower, and I have noticed such signs appearing on the current chart. Therefore, at this moment, my expectation for the market is that if a rebound starts from now, it will likely come back down again, aligning with the daily chart to enter a bullish phase and produce a rebound.
In terms of operations, hold the long position at 109500 for now, and look for a rebound to the 110800-111800 area for the liquidation of short-term bearish liquidity before planning a short position. If there is another downward probe, even refreshing the low points, we will consider entering long positions again around 107000.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on the market.】
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