Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Let's review last Friday. As soon as Old Bao spoke, the market reacted immediately, clearly leaning dovish, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 65% to 75%. However, I believe whether there will definitely be a cut in September still depends on the July PCE, August non-farm payrolls, and August CPI.

The ideal scenario is for the PCE not to explode, non-farm payrolls to remain weak, and CPI to be moderate, then a rate cut in September would be a sure thing. The market sentiment these days has been erratic, one moment calling for a bull market to end, the next saying Ethereum has become a safe haven for funds.

Ethereum couldn't break through 5K, and Bitcoin almost broke 110K, with the bears jumping out to shout about a bull tail market for harvesting. In simple terms, most calls for a top are just noise; the real accuracy comes from panic buying at the bottom. Calls for bulls or bears are not worth much; the market only takes gold and silver seriously.

Additionally, once the rate cut is implemented, there may be a short-term sell-off as I previously mentioned, but don't forget the overall direction is easing, and a weaker dollar is the trend.

Money will likely flow into gold and Bitcoin, and it definitely won't sit idly inflating prices of necessities to create trouble for the common people. The main logic is that liquidity will ultimately flow into the asset market, and no amount of turbulence can stop that.

Returning to the market, Bitcoin's weekly MACD has already shown a death cross, indicating a short-term bearish trend. This adjustment is no longer minor; it directly impacts the rise since 98.2K.

If it truly breaks below 108K, it will be a direct hit to the entire bull market structure since 74.5K. In layman's terms, 108K is the critical point; once broken, expect a significant level of adjustment.

But don't think a death cross means an absolute top; historically, bull market tops often continue to surge after a death cross. 2017 is the most typical example, where the market accelerated to the top after the death cross.

So, in the short term, there may be an extreme rebound, even reaching new highs. But once that rebound is over, the main theme in September will still be bearish. So don't get confused; this is not contradictory. It's a matter of rhythm: first, a rebound, then a painful drop.

The current trend is very clear; the gains from Thursday's Bitcoin surge were almost entirely given back over the weekend. If it tests 112K three times and can't hold, it will break down completely. The support at 110K will become meaningless, and the real support will be at 106K, while I expect a high probability of a pullback from the end of this month to early September.

Ethereum can still hold on for now, moving independently from Bitcoin, but ultimately, Ethereum still has to look at Bitcoin's performance. The short-term high is between 5066 and 5088, and the 5000 level will be tested repeatedly; it needs to stabilize at 4880 to have the chance to push higher again.

The real pressure above is at 5112-5150; if it can't break through, it's all in vain. Today's market is frustrating, with a stalemate between bulls and bears; trading long or short is not satisfying, so if you catch a fish, you must do it quickly, or it will turn into a fleeting memory.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 114400

First Resistance Level: 113500

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 111900

First Support Level: 110500

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin must hold above the previous low of 111.9K to discuss a rebound. If it breaks below 112K again, it means the recovery from 111K is nullified, leading to further declines.

To stabilize the market, it must first rise above 113.5K and break through the upper wedge, which would provide an opportunity for a trend reversal confirmation. Today's key support range is between 110.5K and 112.3K; otherwise, it will all be in vain.

The first resistance at 113.5K is a previous high; once it rebounds to this level, it could easily pull back. Wait for the market to digest the decline and confirm a decent rebound before trading.

The second resistance at 114.4K is basically solid; last night's low of 114.2K was around this area. Don't fantasize about a V-shaped recovery; after such a sharp drop, whether the rebound can sustain depends on the volume.

The first support at 111.9K is today's most critical defense line; if it breaks below, disappointment selling will pour out and hit harder. However, conversely, if it drops to this level, the short-term rebound potential is also high, and once it rebounds to the resistance zone, it can be a good point to short.

The second support at 110.5K; if it can't hold 111.9K, then this level will be the focus. Whether it can rebound today depends on whether the first support can hold.

Currently, the market has pulled back after a sharp drop, indicating some resistance. In the short term, a rebound can be attempted, but if it goes up without volume, be cautious of a second drop when it reaches the resistance zone.

8.25 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in the 113500-114400 range in batches, Target: 111900-110500

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This content is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans and community live broadcasts are now available!

Friendly Reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen on the official public account (as shown above); other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments are unrelated to the author! Please be cautious in distinguishing authenticity, and thank you for reading.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。