In the Uweb live class episode 183, Uweb outstanding alumnus and data weekly report curator A Feng brought a deep sharing session on on-chain data for the audience. This episode focused on the data weekly report from August 11 to August 18, 2025, analyzing on-chain data of Bitcoin (BTC) and other mainstream cryptocurrencies, and delved into the sources, importance, historical review, and guiding significance of on-chain data for future market trends. Below is a comprehensive summary of the content from this episode, divided into several key topics, with optimizations made for possible pronunciation or expression errors in the audio extraction script.
1. The Essence and Importance of On-Chain Data
1. What is On-Chain Data?
A Feng first explained the concept of on-chain data, pointing out that its core lies in the public and transparent nature of the Bitcoin blockchain. As a decentralized distributed ledger, Bitcoin records detailed information about each transaction, including the sending address, receiving address, and transaction amount. This data is all public, and anyone can query historical transaction records through a blockchain explorer. On-chain data analysis assesses market sentiment and future trend predictions by observing the flow of funds, profit realization, and the behavior of long-term and short-term holders.
Unlike traditional financial markets, which use an account balance settlement model (such as direct increases or decreases in bank account balances), Bitcoin employs the UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model. UTXO represents "change" that has not been used from a certain address in the Bitcoin ledger, essentially serving as a certificate that records the generation time and price of Bitcoin. A Feng emphasized that the UTXO model allows on-chain data to clearly reflect the costs and behaviors of holders, providing important bases for investment decisions.
2. Differences Between On-Chain Data and Traditional Finance
Transaction data in traditional financial markets is usually not public, and the account balance model of banks or brokerages lacks the transparency of Bitcoin's on-chain data. Every transaction in Bitcoin is recorded on the blockchain, publicly accessible, breaking the "dark forest rule" of traditional finance and forming a new asset logic. A Feng pointed out that the transparency of on-chain data enables market participants to reach a consensus, thus more effectively driving market developments.
Additionally, on-chain data analyzes market sentiment by statistically examining the behaviors of long-term holders (holding for more than 155 days) and short-term holders (holding for less than 155 days). For example, long-term holders tend to hold rather than sell, while short-term holders are more inclined towards speculative trading. By observing the fund flows and profit realization of these groups, market trends can be inferred.
2. Historical Review and Accuracy of the Data Weekly Report
1. Review of Four Months of Weekly Reports
A Feng reviewed the performance of the data weekly report since its launch in April 2025, noting that it has gone through multiple stages including a bull market's main rise, accumulation, washout, rebound, and correction. Through historical data validation, the overall accuracy of the report's trend judgments has been confirmed, especially at the following key points:
April 6 to May 11, 2025: The on-chain profit-loss curve showed a quick recovery after a small-scale loss, indicating that the market had bottomed out, suitable for swing trading, but not a main rise.
May 17 to July 7, 2025: BTC's trend peaked, but due to long-term holders not selling, the decline was limited, missing the left-side entry opportunity.
July 14 to August 11, 2025: The weekly report clearly indicated the start of the main rise, but with limited upward space, assessed through the positions of long-term and short-term holders and the unrealized profit (NUPL) indicator.
From August 11, 2025: The previous week's report warned of emerging risks for BTC, with insufficient demand leading to a correction, consistent with this week's market situation.
2. Limitations of On-Chain Data
Although on-chain data performs excellently in judging major trends, A Feng also admitted its limitations: it cannot provide precise predictions for ultra-short-term market movements (such as specific declines or sideways trends). This is because on-chain data reflects long-term trends and market sentiment more than short-term fluctuations.
3. Market Analysis and Core Indicator Interpretation for This Week
1. Market Review
This week, BTC experienced a correction, dropping about 2.5% from its peak, while Ethereum (ETH) fell from $4,800 to $4,300, and other mainstream coins also generally saw a rise followed by a fall. A Feng pointed out through Crypto Bubble data that, except for OKB, which saw an abnormal price increase due to token destruction, most coins exhibited a correction trend.
2. Behavior of Long-Term and Short-Term Holders
Using the "holding period storm chart," A Feng analyzed the behavioral changes of long-term holders (over 155 days) and short-term holders (under 155 days). This week, the distribution trend of long-term holders slowed down, short-term holder demand also weakened, while long-term holders with a holding period of over a year (365 days) shifted from distribution to accumulation, indicating a risk of short-term price decline.
A Feng specifically explained why the new indicator for holders over a year was introduced: as institutional investors enter the market, their profit logic differs from traditional crypto market manipulators. Institutions buy BTC in the crypto market and realize profits in the stock market, reducing distribution behavior, which leads to a decrease in the sensitivity of the 155-day indicator. The one-year-plus holder indicator better reflects the guiding significance of institutional behavior on market trends.
3. UTXO Energy Bands and Chip Distribution
The UTXO energy band is one of the core indicators of this week's report, reflecting chip distribution by statistically analyzing the BTC prices corresponding to UTXOs generated at different time points. A Feng likened it to a "rock climbing" process: the current price range is the "cliff," the dense chip area below (like $110,000) is the "support stone," and the sparse area above is the "resistance branch."
This week, BTC broke through the resistance range and entered a new turnover range, but the support level at $110,000 remains very strong, suitable for left-side entry. A Feng emphasized that the main rise of BTC has not yet ended, as the manipulators have only distributed 216,000 BTC, far from the previously accumulated 776,000, indicating there is still room for an increase.
4. Global Momentum Radar and Market Sentiment
The "Global Momentum Radar" analyzes the investment interests of investors in the Americas, Europe, and Asia to determine the dominant forces in the market. A Feng pointed out that current investor sentiment in the Americas and Europe is declining, while sentiment among Asian investors is high, forming a risk signal of "Asian takeover." If sentiment in the Americas warms up, BTC is expected to rebound and reach new historical highs.
5. On-Chain Profit-Loss Curve and Profit Realization
The on-chain profit-loss curve reflects the profit situation during UTXO transfers. This week, profit realization showed an upward trend, indicating that distribution by manipulators is still ongoing, but has not yet reached historical peak levels (large-scale profit realization). Short-term holders lack confidence in profits, with an increase in loss positions and a high proportion of speculative funds, necessitating caution against further correction risks.
6. Extreme Pricing Deviation and Liquidity Pulse
The newly added "extreme pricing deviation" indicator assesses overbought and oversold ranges through the average cost of short-term holders (blue line) and the upper and lower standard deviations (upper and lower bands). The current BTC price is in a healthy range, not touching the upper band (overbought) or lower band (oversold), but if it falls below the cost line (zero value), it may trigger a significant correction.
The "liquidity pulse chart" shows a rebound in the issuance of stablecoins and inflows to exchanges, reflecting a moderate improvement in market demand for BTC, but spot trading volume remains lukewarm, indicating that peak signals have not yet appeared.
4. Off-Chain Data and Macroeconomic Expectations
1. Funding Rate Heatmap
The funding rate heatmap reflects the heat of leveraged trading. Currently, the funding rates for BTC and Ethereum are low, with no signs of "boisterous" overheating, indicating that the main rise still has room.
2. Bitcoin Spot ETF
This week, the net inflow into ETFs was $550 million, an improvement from over $100 million last week, showing a resurgence of interest from U.S. investors. ETFs, due to their low fees and tax advantages, have become the main avenue for U.S. investors to acquire BTC, and their inflow volume is an important indicator of demand.
3. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations
The market's expectation probability for a rate cut in September has reached 77%, which has a positive impact on BTC, U.S. stocks, and even global stock markets. The expectation of a rate cut will boost short-term demand, aiding BTC's market performance.
5. Q&A Session and Common Questions
In the Q&A session, A Feng addressed several key questions from the audience:
Misunderstanding of the On-Chain Profit-Loss Curve: An audience member mistakenly believed that all holders should be 100% profitable at historical highs. A Feng clarified that this curve reflects the average profit level, not the number of profitable individuals, with average profits around 70%-75% at historical peaks.
Whether Exchange Data is Included in On-Chain Statistics: The BTC reserves of exchanges are on-chain, but user account balances are not directly recorded as on-chain transfers; UTXOs are only generated when withdrawals occur.
Differences Between American and Asian Investors: American investors dominate BTC pricing power, while Asian investors often play the role of "takeover," with sentiment differences being an important basis for trend judgment.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Due to Ethereum's use of an account model rather than a UTXO model, analyzing on-chain data is more challenging, making it difficult to accurately predict its peaks.
6. Summary and Outlook
A Feng concluded that BTC is currently in the mid-stage of a main rise, with long-term holders' distribution not yet finished, and manipulators still hold a large amount of chips that have not been sold. The support level ($110,000) is solid, and the likelihood of an increase after a short-term correction is high. If sentiment among American investors warms up, BTC is expected to continue reaching new highs, with an estimated peak around $150,000 (NUPL reaching 75%). However, caution is needed regarding the risk of Asian takeovers and the further corrections caused by short-term holders' lack of confidence.
A Feng emphasized that the data weekly report aims to provide academic discussion and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should combine on-chain data, macro policies, and market sentiment to build an independent judgment system.
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