Today's homework is simpler. Trump is spending more time negotiating with Putin. From the current signs, the outcome of the negotiations may not be too bad. Both sides have indicated that the progress of the talks is good, but this progress should be based on Ukraine withdrawing from the Donetsk region, which is still quite unlikely. It is estimated that Zelensky will not agree to this.

Although we have analyzed multiple times that the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be beneficial for U.S. inflation and would have a very positive effect on reducing tariffs, the data is no longer the focus of the game. Regardless of the data, Trump will demand the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is more about rare earth minerals. Even though there are still many uncertainties, the U.S. must ensure that there is a second plan in the face of China's regulations.

Looking at the data for Bitcoin, the market sentiment has been quite good today, maintaining a slight fluctuation trend. Especially after entering the main trading hours in the U.S., the fluctuations have narrowed even more. Investor sentiment is positive, and everyone seems to be waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting next week.

This should be Powell's most formal response to U.S. economic issues before the September Federal Reserve meeting. However, from the current information, the probability of an interest rate cut in September is still quite high, but it will be more difficult to determine how the second cut will begin.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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