Source: cryptoslate
Translation: Blockchain Knight
According to the holding data tracked by WalletPilot, if the current net inflow rate remains unchanged, Bitcoin spot ETFs are expected to hold over 1.5 million BTC by the end of the year. This holding amount will exceed most estimates of lost Bitcoin (approximately 1.4 million BTC).
As of August 13, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs collectively held about 1.296 million BTC, accounting for nearly 6.5% of the circulating supply. Over the past 30 days, all funds have net added approximately 17,393 BTC. If this pace continues, the total ETF holdings will surpass the 1.5 million mark by December.
BlackRock's IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) has the highest holding proportion, managing about 744,500 BTC. Since the fund's launch in January 2024, this holding has accounted for about 3.3% of the total Bitcoin supply.
In recent months, IBIT has averaged an increase of about 4,300 BTC per month. If the capital flow remains stable, IBIT alone could add approximately 130,000 BTC to its reserves by the end of the year, further intensifying the concentration of holdings among a single issuer.
As ETF holdings increase, the price of Bitcoin has also climbed to around $124,000, a historic high. This level is closely related to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates later this year.
These funds have attracted over $50 billion in assets under management (AUM) over the past year. Their stable net inflow rate has exceeded the new issuance from Bitcoin mining (approximately 450 BTC per day after the halving in April 2024), leading to a continuous tightening of the available circulating supply in the secondary market.
At the current monthly average level, if the capital inflow remains steady, the cumulative ETF holdings will increase by about 70,000 BTC by the end of the year. For example, if the inflow accelerates and the monthly increase doubles to about 34,000 BTC, the ETF reserves could surpass 1.6 million BTC.
Such scenarios will deepen the impact on the tradable supply, potentially increasing the price's sensitivity to macroeconomic dynamics and fund-specific investor capital flows.
The concentration of holdings in a few funds has also affected market structure. Since most shareholders cannot directly redeem underlying Bitcoin with ETF shares, even if ETF secondary market shares change hands, the actual liquidity on exchanges may still be limited. As the demand for ETFs increases in proportion to total trading volume, this dynamic may affect the price discovery process.
Despite stable net inflows in recent months, there is no guarantee that this pace will continue. If the macro environment changes or rising prices trigger more profit-taking, net inflows may slow down or even reverse. Additionally, regulatory dynamics (such as adjustments to ETF redemption mechanisms or broad revisions to securities laws) remain variables that could influence trends.
The next four months will determine whether the spot ETF can break through the 1.5 million BTC holding threshold. At the current pace, this milestone seems within reach and adds a new dimension to the interaction between institutional products and the underlying digital asset supply.
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