I'll repeat myself since most of you don't listen.

Monetary metrics (M2 and bank credit) are expanding, which is inflationary, while tariffs are unequivocally causing prices to keep rising in the short-term.

Trump wants to "run it hot".

If he also distributes tariffs checks to Americans (direct fiscal stimulus via transfer payments), then inflation will get worse in the short/medium-term.

It isn't rocket-science... it's basic economics.

Remember this:

Whether we're talking about headline, core, median, or trimmed-mean CPI inflation (YoY), every single one of them is higher today than they were in both March & April 2025 (pre-tariffs).

By definition, that means inflation is accelerating.

Is it accelerating ONLY because of tariffs?

No, absolutely not.

As I've said for years, inflation is multivariate.

But are tariffs helping to lower inflation?

I see no evidence of that, whatsoever.

In fact, I only see evidence that they are contributing to re-inflation.

The only thing missing from this inflation cocktail is supply bottlenecks and/or commodity supply shocks, like for oil.

It's clear, unequivocally, that inflation is a risk again.

Not necessarily a risk to the markets, because it's still tame, but a risk to the macro environment and for us as consumers.

If inflation is modest, but rising, then asset prices should still perform well... but it's anyone's guess what the tipping point will be for high inflation to pose a risk to the market itself.

So yes, it's still "party on"... in a sense.

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