Bold Prediction: @irys_xyz is likely to be Da Mao
Hold on before you criticize, let me share my thoughts and analysis👇
1/ First of all, will Irys airdrop?
Yes, it will airdrop.
Will Irys airdrop to Kaito yapper?
On May 30, 2025, the Irys pre-TGE yap leaderboard will officially launch. Although there is no clear yap airdrop ratio, based on industry practices and Irys's subsequent calls for community yap, it is highly likely that it will airdrop to yapper.
2/ How much will be airdropped? How is the airdrop value calculated?
Based on the clearly defined airdrop ratios of Kaito pre-TGE projects, the yapper airdrop ratio is roughly between 0.5%-2.5%. For example:
Mira airdropped 0.5% of tokens
Goat Network airdropped 1% of tokens
Anoma airdropped 1% of tokens
Hyperpie airdropped 2% of tokens
Warden Protocol airdropped 2.5% of tokens
We take a median value and assume Irys will airdrop 1% of tokens.
Regarding airdrop value, I believe the best comparable project for Irys is Walrus.
Vision:
Walrus: Decentralized storage and data availability protocol
Irys: The first L1 integrating storage, execution, and data composability
Investors:
Walrus: Standard Crypto, a16z, etc.
Irys: Framework Ventures, Lemniscap, Primitive Ventures, etc.
Therefore, the airdrop value can be easily calculated. Walrus currently has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $2.1 billion. We take a round number and assume Irys's FDV after TGE will be $2 billion, which gives an airdrop value of $20 million. Even if we halve the valuation to $1 billion, the airdrop value would still be $10 million.
Is this valuation fair? If we really rank by capital, Walrus (established in 2024) would have to call Irys (established in 2021) a senior. Bundlr Network (the predecessor of Irys) was established in 2021, positioned as a decentralized storage solution for the Arweave ecosystem. In October 2023, Bundlr announced its rebranding to Irys, along with a brand overhaul and roadmap upgrade.
However, compared to Irys, Walrus's biggest advantage is actually that its development team is Mysten Labs.
3/ How to ambush?
This is the last and most important question.
Direct links:
Kaito yap: http://kaito.irys.xyz
Testnet: https://irys.xyz/faucet
I recommend doing both for double insurance.
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